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Thread: global warming. hoax?

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  2. #2
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    I'm not able to watch the video, but it seems highly unlikely that global warming itself is a hoax. Where some people disagree is the cause. Given the measurable impact of other human activity on the environment (acid rain, smog, measurable temperature changes during the flying ban post-9/11, the hole in the ozone layer), it seems perfectly credible that human activity is a key part of global warming. The data, such that I am aware of and insofar as I understand it, also seems reliable.

    If there was not such a clear commercial lobby group funding and supporting all dissenting viewports, I might be less inclined to doubt the doubters. I have yet to see a clear statement of trend based on natural events, for example. Such things are alluded to, but never with any data to demonstrate a causal link. Given the huge weather changes seen across Europe (harshest winter for many in 2005/2006, mildest in 2006/2007, wettest summer in 2006 for some, dryest for others - all just in Europe), one might expect to be able to tie this to natural contributions by now.

    Irrespective of anything else, it's clear that the majority of public opinion (at least in the UK and Europe) has already been won over. In the US, it seems that the lobby groups from older heavy industries remain so influential as to stifle all non-approved debate. Shame.
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  3. #3
    If you read up on Martin Durkin and how he twisted the words of some of the scientists he interviewed you start to wonder which theory is the swindle.

    this is what Carl Wunsch ( one of those scientists ) has to say about the subject:
    http://ocean.mit.edu/~cwunsch/papers...o_channel4.htm

  4. #4
    dynamics...so much fun ;) prospector's Avatar
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    movie is just soo true.
    But, people will follow anyone with the money.
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  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by prospector
    movie is just soo true.
    But, people will follow anyone with the money.
    Hmmm, this is what Carl Wunsch has to say about the truthfullness of the movie:

    "At a minimum, I ask that the film should never be seen again publicly
    with my participation included. Channel 4 surely owes an apology to
    its viewers, and perhaps WAGTV owes something to Channel 4. I will be
    taking advice as to whether I should proceed to make some more formal protest."

    http://puddle.mit.edu/~cwunsch/
    http://ocean.mit.edu/~cwunsch/papers...o_channel4.htm

  6. #6
    Ach, Mein thirsten! Anti-Distinctly's Avatar
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    I saw the Al Gore film, and was relatively convinced. Then, after some discussions with a friend of mine, I was not so convinced that global warming is man made.
    As a society, we tend to believe/trust people in authority such as scientists. So when we are confronted with 'scientific' evidence people tend to have total faith that what they are being told is true - Recent advertisements for cosmetics spring to mind with their idiotic pseudo-science campaigns.
    My point being that the combination of media exacerbation of the subject, and scientists being quoted (in and out of context) in that media makes the populace believe what ever they are spouting.

    I am a scientist and to be honest, the only thing I'm now sure about is that we are not sure about the causes of climate change. I have personal experience in numerical modelling and I can honestly say they aren't as definative as most people think. I wouldn't trust them at all, as you have to completely understand something to model it. Thats the simple version of it anyway.

    It does infuriate me when I keep seeing so much stuff about carbon this and carbon that and I think to myself 'dudes, you more than likely barking up the wrong tree'. Don't get me wrong, I consider myself somewhat of an environmentalist and a lot of good has come out of this issue with regards to renewable energy resources, but there are so many aspects that I think we are wasting resources on, i.e. that the media frenzy has everyone convinced that CO2 is the cause of everything climate related, when the reality is that this is such a complex subject and we just don't know.
    Last edited by Anti-Distinctly; 04-11-2007 at 02:25 AM.
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    Edit
    Last edited by TripD; 04-11-2007 at 03:11 AM.

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    I agree with much of what you have said here. The ability to model the climate is of ultimate difficulty. One of the big sticking points, at least while I was studying it, was the latent heat of water in the atmo. The movie did atleast represent the sun's contribution with fidelity. I was most interested in the correlation of solar activity to cloud density changes. To me that was the strongest argument made. Even if much of their argument was bull, I really think they nailed the political agenda aspect of it. While I was in college we had a visiting lecturer from NCAR. After his talk we all adjourned for cocktails. Some student asked the lecturer if we were going to ever figure out the weather, to which he replied: Is there any grant money in the house? I think that sums up what most research is about. Funding, which only comes with public interest.

    My only disagreement with you is that a lack of full understanding has never kept Meteorologists from modelling the weather. Just tweak to suit.

  9. #9
    Eingetragenes Mitglied Dirk's Avatar
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    I saw it and found it worth watching.

    I think it was Prof. Lindzen of the MIT who pointed out that fundings for meteorological research rose from 180 million dollars to about 2 billion dollar in the USA. For 2 billion tax dollars a year, one can buy a lot of Swindle...

    @Toonafish: all of the scientists in the documentary where very explicit in their statements. Carl Wunsch didn't make an exception. Wunsch criticized the way computer models are used and how always the most horrible scenarios are pushed into the public. Wunsch verbatim, about 50 min. in the docu:

    "Even within the scientific community you see, it's a problem.
    If I run a complicated model and I do something to it like melt a lot of ice into the ocean and nothing happens, it's not likely to get printed. But if I run the same model, and I adjust it in such a way that something dramatic happens to the ocean circulation like the heat transport turns off, it will be published. People will say this is very exciting. It will even get picked by the media. So there is a bias, there's is a very powerful bias within the media, and within the science community itself, toward results which are dramatizable. If Earth freezes over, that's a much more interesting story than saying well you know it fluctuates around, sometimes the mass flux goes up by 10%, sometimes it goes down by 20%, but eventually it comes back. Well you know, which would you do a story on? That's what it's about."

    I don't see how this statement could be taken out of context. Propably, Wunsch didn't realize how the "heretics" are treated by the scientific community.
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    Unregistered Guest Sarford's Avatar
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    Nice find Stooch.
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  11. #11
    Parttime Member mikala's Avatar
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    Don't need to see this to know...we ruin everything we touch.

  12. #12
    CORE 5718 mattclary's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikala
    Don't need to see this to know...we ruin everything we touch.
    Ive heard of "white guilt", but this is a relatively new phenomenon I think.

    We should coin a new term called "human guilt". It has become rather common for people to feel humans are the worst thing to happen to earth.

    Do a search on the Gaia theory. There has been some thought given to the possibility that humans are actually the reproductive organ for the planet. We are likely to spread Earth's seed to other planets. We demand more resources because of this. Yeah, we pollute, but we also build the pyramids, the Eiffel tower, the Coliseum. We kill species wholesale, but we cry over a touching story of an animal saved from danger.

    If you look at human history, we have done some seriously f***ed up sh*t. The inquisition, the crusades, Auchwitz... But we are getting better. It is up to you to teach your children to be better than you are in all things.

  13. #13
    The earth has natural cycles. Ice ages, periods of relatively hot weather, etc. However, these changes generally take 100s of thousands of years. From my POV, man has sped this process up.

    To say that global warming ISN'T happening is pretty naive. Take where I live for example. When I was little (80s-early 90s) it snowed every year some time around Jan-Feb. Not a lot, but an inch or two. Just enough to cancel school :P (yes a hint of cold and things close here :P) In the passed 5 or 6 years it has snowed twice. It has been 80 degrees F on Christmas, and I walk around in a T shirt for most of "winter." We used to need coats, gloves, hats in the winter because it got cold (20-30s). It doesn't do that any more.

    Then there are the stronger storms in the Atlantic and Pacific.. Sure its not a sign of global warming, but its a sign that the environment is changing. Man caused or not.
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  14. #14
    Nothing ado about much Exception's Avatar
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    We had nice conversation about this a few weeks ago, and I thought people didn't want to talk about this...

    Concerning global climate change, there's scientific consent, which means it's been proven beyond reasonable doubt by the scientific community. All the effort pumped in to saying it is not so has also been proven to be mostly traceable to large corporations or religious or political groups. (I saw the university of Jerusalem plop by, and a brittish lord... right there, religion, politics and science don't mix guys!)

    These docudramas are always fun to watch, but they can be so misleading. Remember the one on US income tax being unlawful? Ha.

    It is most important to realise that, wether anyone is right or wrong... making decisions based on it not being true has infinately more potential to be disastrous than making decisions based on it being true.
    Last edited by Exception; 04-11-2007 at 07:42 AM.

  15. #15
    Nothing ado about much Exception's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Megalodon
    As much as I really WANT to agree with you, I don't really see "us" getting better - at least any time soon. Didn't they move up the doomsday clock closer to midnight?
    I agree.
    Our generation, and the one before us, are the only ones that leave unfixable problems for the generations after us. We are pillaging the planet, causing problems for future generations and not allowing them to fix it or having the same options and possibilities as we have. This is the first time in history. Every other human born in the world received the same chances regarding their environement. Our children and their children will get a raped planet.

    CO2 is a small problem in the face of all the other issues, but it's one of them. That movie tries to blame everything on CO2, which is inaccurate. It just regurgitates all the same old propaganda we've all heard before. the enviornmental movement is trying to prevent "critical industrial progress which gives us all a better, fulfilling and richer life." Oh really? Disposable instant noodles mke life better for us? Someone actually thinks our lives are more fulfilling than the lives of people a 100 years ago? And there is no way to achieve this without rampant consumerism (which is only good for very few people at the top... with enough money to have documentaries made) Oh, the warped visions...
    Last edited by Exception; 04-11-2007 at 07:57 AM.

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