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Thread: Autodesk Details Subscription Transition for New Software Licenses

  1. #106
    Quote Originally Posted by Surrealist. View Post
    lol sorry guys... the only reason I did that is because I have seen it done here so many times I figured you guys have read it as many times here as I have - here on this forum. I have also seen it on all of the other forums. I had to sort out what it meant and in context I figured then other people would/could too, or had already.

    Open Source Software.
    oh...right...okay

    at least we know what the heck you were on about now...just stick to english and whole words ..if you must put in an acronym then explain it once...then refer to the short version after that.

    it's good to include everyone in a conversation if possible
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  2. #107
    lol yeah Thanks for the FYI

    AFAIK that is the ay to do it... and IMHO it should always be.

  3. #108
    Often Banned Megalodon2.0's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Surrealist. View Post
    And for 3D software many have been turning to Blender. Not just to Maya or Modo or Max. I have seen this explode in the last 3-4 years.
    This could be for MANY different reasons and not necessarily those you suggest.

    First and foremost, Blender has been improving considerably during this time period - having many features (not yet mature of course) that software such as LW does not have. If I were starting out in 3D right now, I would choose Blender hands down. Second, with the termination of Softimage (and previously trueSpace) I would guess that many people are tired of learning a piece of software (and investing heavily in it) only to have it relegated to history - and again - Blender is moving forward very quickly. And then you take the move by Adobe - and the speculation that 3D software will be rental-only - and you have the perfect storm of people not wanting to held hostage by one company just to open and edit their files. As I've said here previously, if NT/LW3DG EVER chooses a rental-only method of delivery, then I will definitely begin moving over to Blender. No questions asked. I won't be giving any other paid-for software another look. Right now I have LW and Modo as primary software and I would rather migrate over to Blender than provide any company with revenue to help stick it to me.

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
    Dave Williams
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  4. #109
    Adapting Artist jasonwestmas's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Megalodon2.0 View Post
    This could be for MANY different reasons and not necessarily those you suggest.

    First and foremost, Blender has been improving considerably during this time period - having many features (not yet mature of course) that software such as LW does not have. If I were starting out in 3D right now, I would choose Blender hands down. Second, with the termination of Softimage (and previously trueSpace) I would guess that many people are tired of learning a piece of software (and investing heavily in it) only to have it relegated to history - and again - Blender is moving forward very quickly. And then you take the move by Adobe - and the speculation that 3D software will be rental-only - and you have the perfect storm of people not wanting to held hostage by one company just to open and edit their files. As I've said here previously, if NT/LW3DG EVER chooses a rental-only method of delivery, then I will definitely begin moving over to Blender. No questions asked. I won't be giving any other paid-for software another look. Right now I have LW and Modo as primary software and I would rather migrate over to Blender than provide any company with revenue to help stick it to me.

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
    What the heck, do it now, begin to move to blender. That way you can know what you are getting into.
    All that is powerful or long standing is first conceived in the imagination; supported by the hope of possibility and then made manifest in our commitment of our current physical reality.

  5. #110
    Quote Originally Posted by Surrealist. View Post
    I think you make some assumptions about open source software that are just not true. When you say, "But as others have pointed out you don't get a job with OSS". Well were exactly? You mean in the studio system? You have to qualify that. And also you have to consider that software companies - or the marketing staff actually - think broadly. And when they come up with marketing words like "indie developer" it is because they researched this and found out who they are, what they are doing and what software they are using.
    What I mean by that is given 2 people to hire, the one you most likely are going to hire is the one that has photoshop experience vs gimp experience even if the work shown is about on par with each other. It's not that they are alienating the gimp user, it's just simply cheaper (less training) to hire someone who has the photoshop experience in this example if that is what they are using in their pipeline.

    As far as the statistics go I haven't really looked through it, but yes the use of OSS is increasing but I guess I haven't looked in a while or noticed anyone looking for OSS experience.

  6. #111
    Often Banned Megalodon2.0's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jasonwestmas View Post
    What the heck, do it now, begin to move to blender. That way you can know what you are getting into.
    That's good advice. Unfortunately I'm "one of those" who tends to stay in their comfort zone AND I don't particularly like to learn new software - unless I have to. For the time being, LW is doing fine for me. I do have Blender and it is installed, but learning it is way down on my list. Unless I'm "forced," I'll hold off learning Blender for some time to come. Hell... I don't even know LW as good as I would like to.
    Dave Williams
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  7. #112
    Quote Originally Posted by Megalodon2.0 View Post
    This could be for MANY different reasons and not necessarily those you suggest.

    First and foremost, Blender has been improving considerably during this time period - having many features (not yet mature of course) that software such as LW does not have. If I were starting out in 3D right now, I would choose Blender hands down. Second, with the termination of Softimage (and previously trueSpace) I would guess that many people are tired of learning a piece of software (and investing heavily in it) only to have it relegated to history - and again - Blender is moving forward very quickly. And then you take the move by Adobe - and the speculation that 3D software will be rental-only - and you have the perfect storm of people not wanting to held hostage by one company just to open and edit their files. As I've said here previously, if NT/LW3DG EVER chooses a rental-only method of delivery, then I will definitely begin moving over to Blender. No questions asked. I won't be giving any other paid-for software another look. Right now I have LW and Modo as primary software and I would rather migrate over to Blender than provide any company with revenue to help stick it to me.

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
    Yeah this is all very true I think. I was only speaking of one aspect of it from one point of view to make a particular point. And I agree with you here. It is a complex issue and there are many factors at play. I think they all contribute in one way or another. It is just that I never really looked at how the OSS angle played into rental before. I could be dead wrong. But as I looked at it and started looking at some of the stats, it became more and more compelling as an argument.

    But I can say as a person who uses Blender and have been using it for 6 years or more now, that I have a fairly good finger on the pulse of the business side of Blender. And I have seen it grow since the release of 2.5. And I know and work with a number of clients in the business who use only open source software. I have also had a close watch on the job ads for Blender and have interacted with scores of potential clients. So this gives me an intimate perspective of who these indie developers are and what they are up to and have watched a certain explosion of adds for Blender artists to work for small start up companies. It is a small cottage industry - if you will. Or small offices usually. It ain't big studios. But it is an industry.

    And I can tell you pretty much that the reasoning I speak of is 100 percent true for each of them. It has nothing to do with other software as much as a growing reputation for what can be done with Blender. And by and large these are not 3D people. They don't know what Maya or Max or Modo can or can not do. They have never even researched it. They have not used Softimage or dealt with Autodesk or even visit the forums to learn much of these things at all.

    Most of them are not even artists. They are business people with a plan. And so Blender is a software with a reputation that it works "as good as or better" than professional software. They know enough to know they need 3D software, the prices of the alternatives. Blender is free. Slam dunk. They just go with Blender. They learn it enough to deal with certain aspects of the program and work it into their pipeline and then hire artists to do the rest.

    This can be frustrating at times because of these non-artist assumptions. And I often have to educate them that no, Blender actually can not do that. You have to use X software.

    So the point here is that this same person now goes to check out Blender it is free, Then they go have a look at Maya LT. This is what it says on the site: "Get started with an easy and affordable way to build games" And it is $30 USD bucks a month. Now you have them thinking - at least.

    Before what did you see: Maya $3,675 + maintenance subscription $625 per year. Initial purchase 4,300 USD.

    That is enough to stop any further research right there. Back to Blender. Yeah it rigs characters and does all this other cool stuff and exports to game engines. Good enough.

    Now with rental some of these people will at least say, hey wait. Pull out a credit card, All the big studios use Maya, may not need all of that, but at least we are using a top of the line program and what the heck only 30 bucks a month.

    All I am trying to say is these are the people they are marketing to here. And this - in their eyes - is the effective solution to loosing this market to Blender. It is the only thing they have that they can do.

    And so these are not industry professionals schooled in 3D they are small business looking to start up at very low cost.

  8. #113
    Quote Originally Posted by Lito View Post
    What I mean by that is given 2 people to hire, the one you most likely are going to hire is the one that has photoshop experience vs gimp experience even if the work shown is about on par with each other. It's not that they are alienating the gimp user, it's just simply cheaper (less training) to hire someone who has the photoshop experience in this example if that is what they are using in their pipeline.

    As far as the statistics go I haven't really looked through it, but yes the use of OSS is increasing but I guess I haven't looked in a while or noticed anyone looking for OSS experience.
    Job ads. OK. Yes. I agree. Looking down the list of ads on any posting board and you always see the software use and experience as a definite requirement - in most cases. And Blender, though not prevalent in a lot of these places yet also has the same requirements. Companies hire for Blender all the time. You have to use Blender. This is the requirement. Just as anything. I usually see several per month. More than I see for LightWave. These are bonified salary jobs working on location at a business. Not just all freelance positions. And on that note we all know here that as a freelancer doing work for clients, you don't have to have any particular software beyond what you know will get the job done.

    So I am just saying you have to qualify that. Are these jobs in the studio - large or small - realm? Mostly no. At this time.

    But this is a growing industry. That it exists at all and takes away large numbers of seats from Maya and Max is not missed by Autodesk. They are not so easy to dismiss software that is taking away scores of potential seats per year. I actually don't know the numbers on this. But just do a little simple math and it is probably in the thousands per year.

  9. #114
    "... richer future." for Autodesk.
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  10. #115
    Often Banned Megalodon2.0's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Surrealist. View Post
    And I can tell you pretty much that the reasoning I speak of is 100 percent true for each of them. It has nothing to do with other software as much as a growing reputation for what can be done with Blender. And by and large these are not 3D people. They don't know what Maya or Max or Modo can or can not do. They have never even researched it. They have not used Softimage or dealt with Autodesk or even visit the forums to learn much of these things at all.

    Most of them are not even artists. They are business people with a plan. And so Blender is a software with a reputation that it works "as good as or better" than professional software. They know enough to know they need 3D software, the prices of the alternatives. Blender is free. Slam dunk. They just go with Blender. They learn it enough to deal with certain aspects of the program and work it into their pipeline and then hire artists to do the rest.

    This can be frustrating at times because of these non-artist assumptions. And I often have to educate them that no, Blender actually can not do that. You have to use X software.

    So the point here is that this same person now goes to check out Blender it is free, Then they go have a look at Maya LT. This is what it says on the site: "Get started with an easy and affordable way to build games" And it is $30 USD bucks a month. Now you have them thinking - at least.
    I think you may be over-generalizing things here. You make it SOUND like small businesses that need 3D are run by mindless idiots who don't know anything. I also think you're taking for granted their mindset which is "free is what we need."

    Quote Originally Posted by Surrealist. View Post
    Before what did you see: Maya $3,675 + maintenance subscription $625 per year. Initial purchase 4,300 USD.

    That is enough to stop any further research right there. Back to Blender. Yeah it rigs characters and does all this other cool stuff and exports to game engines. Good enough.

    Now with rental some of these people will at least say, hey wait. Pull out a credit card, All the big studios use Maya, may not need all of that, but at least we are using a top of the line program and what the heck only 30 bucks a month.

    All I am trying to say is these are the people they are marketing to here. And this - in their eyes - is the effective solution to loosing this market to Blender. It is the only thing they have that they can do.

    And so these are not industry professionals schooled in 3D they are small business looking to start up at very low cost.
    I think that any small business owner will actually DO the research or ask knowledgeable people what they need. Oftentimes Blender IS all they need. And as a small business owner myself, I certainly would not want to be held hostage by a company that provides rental-only software. Many of us understand that business has ups and downs - and you buy software when you have good revenue and hold back when your revenue slows. To be tied to a software that you MUST continually pay for just to open and edit your files - no matter how well the business is doing - is not logical. Not to mention the fact that many of these small business don't even need the power of Maya or Max. You're also ignoring the fact that Maya (or Max) is not the only game in town. C4D, Modo, LW and quite a few others are still available and (aside from C4D) are not anywhere near the cost of Maya.

    AutoDesk is also aware that their upgrades have been less than stellar over the years - as people have also mentioned about Adobe. IMO, it MAY be OSS that is partly to blame for their move to rental-only, but also their inability to seriously improve their software is fueling their NEED to lock users in. Adobe was able to do it with low prices initially - that will ultimately change. We'll see how AD does it with Max and Maya. I'd love to see the Foundry and LW3DG seriously improve their software and begin taking away market share from AD. Of course if they go rental-only as well... Blender WILL be the go-to app. Not for big studios of course - at least not until Blender has the flexibility of Maya - but small studios are a perfect fit for Blender.
    Dave Williams
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  11. #116
    Yeah I agree on a lot of points there.

    Just to clarify, I am just reporting what I know from dealing with these people directly. I never said they were mindless idiots. But I merely point out that 3D is not their field.

    And I am not ignoring other 3D packages. This is a thread about Autodesk. So I am putting this into the context of what I believe is their marketing strategy based on what they believe the customer will be thinking. It matches what I know personally about these people.

    So the assumptions I make are just connecting dots. And maybe I am wrong about some of the connections, but we will never know that because none of these companies will talk about it publicly. But I am convinced that internally this is a huge factor. Along with the other things you and others have said. I think it is a complex thing with a lot of angles at play. But a very large factor is this OSS thing which makes the projected move to OSS as a response all the more ironic.

    However when the dust does settle. Me personally I think we as artists will be better off. I guess I am a cup half full kind of thinker.

  12. #117
    World's Tallest Dwarf safetyman's Avatar
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    Like it or not, FOSS will start eating into AD's and Adobe's market share. It's gonna happen as a direct backlash to their subscription policies (and maybe because of their business practices, who knows). I'm hoping that LW will gain market share as a result of AD forcing their customers into a corner, but they know more about how to market themselves than I do.

    The thing about Blender that is really nice is that the Blender Foundation has a path, a roadmap for the future of their software. They aren't just a bunch of programmers who get together every week and say, "oooo this would be a nice feature, let's do that." They have a vision well down the road of what they want to focus on and they do it, and it's an actual job for the programmers, not a hobby. Combine that with the hundreds of thousands (or maybe even millions) of Blender users and you get a recipe for success IMO.

  13. #118
    Yeah well my response, again. It has already happened. I suppose we are arguing the chicken or the egg here. But that statistics clearly show this already happened before rentals were introduced. Rentals came after. That is something that can not be disputed. I mean you can have the opinion that it does not matter. But you can not dispute the numbers of users of Blender and the rise of indie developers before rentals were even announced. This happened to explode just before AD introduced Maya LT. And a good year before Adobe went all rental. And also not just these companies. Just about every other company is using the term "indie" version. Or offering something with a similar name.

    Some companies currently offering this just off hand:

    Side Effects
    Quixel (ndo dDo)
    Substance Designer
    The Foundry (modo mari)
    Black Magic (fusion)
    C4D (LT version budled with After Effects)

    Some of these were announced after Adobe went rental. A few of them in the past year. Some of them went before.

    But the consistant thing that happened before all of this was Blender and open source software began to grow significantly.

    Granted this is mostly targeted at IT stuff, but it is a strong indicator as to what is happening.

    Ten Figures and facts about open source software:

    http://blog.nxcgroup.com/2013/ten-fa.../#.VOOAhS73O5I

    Just look at these numbers:


    In 1998, only 10% of organizations were using open source software (OSS); by 2011, more than 50% of organizations surveyed by Gartner, the world’s leading information technology research company, reported using open source software.
    62% of organizations reported using open standard application programming interfaces (APIs).

    There has been a 140% increase in interest in purchasing open source software over the past four years.
    By 2014, 2,000,000 open source projects are projected – twice as many as in 2012.
    Major companies around the globe are using open source technology, including Facebook, Google and more.
    The global software market is worth close to $300 billion, with open source growing at an average yearly growth of 22% and expected to exceed $8 billion in 2013, according to market research from the International Data Corporation (IDC).
    In 2012, Gartner reported that on average, 29% of deployed code was open source.
    Gartner predicts that by 2015 at least 95% of mainstream IT organizations will leverage open source solutions within mission critical software deployments.
    The “2012 Linux Jobs Report” by Dice and The Linux Foundation found that the need for open source programming language skills had hit all-time highs.
    They report that there were almost 2,000 jobs posted daily in 2012 for personnel skilled in JBoss, and job postings for programmers with Android skills and experience were up 33 percent from 2011.

    When studies like this are done and released I am going to bet money that the marketing teams at Adobe and Autodesk are all over it.

    So you have a growing use of things like Open Office. Gimp, Blender, Inkscape and on and on going right along for the ride.

    In my opnion not insigificant and also more to do with the cause of what is happening. As nice as it is to have someone to point the finger at. And as easy as it is to say well I hope everyone runs to OSS software because of what AD Adobe are doing... well, I don't know. Numbers support it was a reaction. Not first Blood.

  14. #119
    Often Banned Megalodon2.0's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Surrealist. View Post
    But a very large factor is this OSS thing which makes the projected move to OSS as a response all the more ironic.
    Though the irony is, you MAY have it backwards. It may end turning out that more and more people turn to OSS - Blender - than move over to rental-only. Companies like AD may end up pushing their customers away rather than enticing them to rent. I can EASILY see this for many smaller studios with a basic pipeline as opposed to studios who have complex (and set-in-stone) pipelines. For me, I certainly would move to Blender. And perusing the Adobe forums there are many with the same mindset. If you're a small company just starting out and (perhaps) not focusing specifically on 3D, then I would not lock myself in to one piece of software that I would be required to pay forever. Of course that's just MY POV. We'll just have to wait and see how the dust settles.

    Quote Originally Posted by Surrealist. View Post
    However when the dust does settle. Me personally I think we as artists will be better off. I guess I am a cup half full kind of thinker.
    I used to be before CORE, then I became allot more pessimistic. Perhaps in the long run these rental-only companies will end up having to reinstate perpetual licenses because the once smaller players will be stepping up to the plate and hitting triples and home runs by seriously improving the software and forcing ownership of software BACK. It's going to be an interesting few years.
    Dave Williams
    Digital Sorcery Warehouse LLC

  15. #120
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    There is another factor to consider.
    Real time engines are getting faster and faster and the animation workflows that we have come to depend on will be reconsidered from the ground up by a generation not willing to spend 6 months learning a program.
    I would bet that in 5 years we will see some new players.
    This message does not reflect the opinions of the US Government, CG Networks or CGTALK.com. The opinions expressed on this posting are on my own volition.

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