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hrgiger
04-16-2008, 03:10 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080415/od_afp/spaceastronomygermany

It seems that a 13 year old boy has correctly recalculated the chance that Apophis, a giant asteroid, will hit Earth. NASA has agreed with his findings. It was 1 in 45,000. Now it's 1 in 450. Much better. Thanks to Matt Clary for the link.

From the story:

"Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely."

I say we drill.

toby
04-16-2008, 03:14 PM
linky no good...

hrgiger
04-16-2008, 03:22 PM
Try this one: http://www.physorg.com/news127499715.html

And looking further, it seems that NASA is refuting that this story is true and that their original prediction is still accurate.

Lightwolf
04-16-2008, 03:26 PM
Story no good: http://cosmos4u.blogspot.com/2008/04/apophis-risk-not-increased-science-fair.html :D

(Bild is like a mix of the National Enquirer and the Sun ;) ).

Cheers,
Mike

prospector
04-16-2008, 03:45 PM
Since we know by latest reports that scientists are druggies..maby they are doing a flashback to the original numbers and insist they ARE right...:devil:
The writers skipped the rest of the sentence where NASA said, "cooool maaaannnnn"

Steamthrower
04-16-2008, 04:15 PM
Global warming created calculation errors in NASA's computer banks.

Bill Carey
04-16-2008, 05:16 PM
An asteroid small enough to be deflected in any meaningful way by hitting a satellite wouldn't be much of a problem I think.

hrgiger
04-16-2008, 08:03 PM
An asteroid small enough to be deflected in any meaningful way by hitting a satellite wouldn't be much of a problem I think.

In 1908, an asteroid that was only about 30 meters in diameter left about 800 square miles of scorched earth in Siberia. Depending on where that would hit today, that would be a real big problem.

When you consider how far and how long these asteroids travel through space, it doesn't take much to alter their trajectory over that distance. Moving something half an inch by an impact could throw it off several thousands of miles over the course of it's orbit I would think.

wp_capozzi
04-17-2008, 01:46 AM
Maybe the Large Hadron Collider at CERN that is due to come online soon will create a mini black hole that will swallow the asteroid before it hits the Earth.

Anti-Distinctly
04-17-2008, 02:31 AM
The main thing to really be concerned about it speed as it has more of a pronounced effect on the impactor's energy. KE = 1/2*m*v^2
Comets are the one's you want to watch out for, even though they're made of ice they're going so darn fast that we don't stand a chance :P
@hrgiger: The Tunguska asteroid was pretty cool, but get this; can't recall the figures exactly but due to the rotation of the Earth, if it has hit 2 hours later it would've hit around Moscow, 4 hours later it would've hit London. It was an air burst too - the most damaging kind.

Bill Carey
04-17-2008, 02:35 AM
In 1908, an asteroid that was only about 30 meters in diameter left about 800 square miles of scorched earth in Siberia. Depending on where that would hit today, that would be a real big problem.

When you consider how far and how long these asteroids travel through space, it doesn't take much to alter their trajectory over that distance. Moving something half an inch by an impact could throw it off several thousands of miles over the course of it's orbit I would think.

Yeah, if we were talking about it hitting the satellite and then hitting the earth a thousand years in the future the butterfly effect works, but from what I read it's says it's moving the orbit of a 200 billion ton object in seven years. If it was that easy to move we should start parking them in orbit and mine them.

DogBoy
04-17-2008, 02:37 AM
Maybe the Large Hadron Collider at CERN that is due to come online soon will create a mini black hole that will swallow the asteroid before it hits the Earth.

I think you meant "...swallow the Earth before the asteroid impacts" :D

Dirk
04-17-2008, 03:16 AM
According to my calculations, the chance that a 13 year old does better than NASA is about 1 to 10.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000 ...

Matt
04-17-2008, 04:01 AM
You can use LW Dynamics to alter the path of the meteor, end of problem!

;)

hrgiger
04-17-2008, 04:15 AM
You can use LW Dynamics to alter the path of the meteor, end of problem!

;)

Yeah, but it would be very jittery.

Mitja
04-17-2008, 04:18 AM
So this should happen in 2029... according to whos calculations?!

Andyjaggy
04-17-2008, 08:30 AM
Nasa is now saying the kid is a moron and incorrect. Saving face or the truth?

Safe Harbor
04-17-2008, 09:26 AM
You can use LW Dynamics to alter the path of the meteor, end of problem!

;)

Personally, my only concern is if LW users can put good looking hair on it with the new FFX. Anyone care to post renders? :p

Bill Carey
04-17-2008, 03:43 PM
:thumbsup: Hmm, a hairy asteroid....

Iain
04-17-2008, 04:15 PM
Maybe the Large Hadron Collider at CERN that is due to come online soon will create a mini black hole that will swallow the asteroid before it hits the Earth.

There were some concerns that the LHC was an incomprehensible waste of money and that people like Brian Cox (if only it were the Hannibal actor rather than some enthusiastic but underachieving Hawking wannabe) were being instructed to give it some false gravitas with no effect whatsoever.
Now if it could just do something useful..........

kilvano
04-17-2008, 05:31 PM
You can use LW Dynamics to alter the path of the meteor, end of problem!

;)

Yeah but yout would get different results depending on which version of LW you use. Cant afford those kind of variations!

I away to model 2 space ships based on the design from Armageddon just incase NASA call looking for some ideas!

Andyjaggy
04-18-2008, 08:14 AM
Please, not more hairy balls or astroids. I can't take anymore.

pooby
04-18-2008, 08:44 AM
You can use LW Dynamics to alter the path of the meteor, end of problem!

;)

and thered be very little collision detection anyway so it'd probably pass right through the earth

RollerJesus
04-18-2008, 08:52 AM
and thered be very little collision detection anyway so it'd probably pass right through the earth

Let me set the dynamics up and I guarantee it will pass through earth no problem. If fact, it may even crash before it ever gets a chance to reach here. :thumbsup:

Steamthrower
04-18-2008, 08:54 AM
We'll need to install HD instance so that when the asteroid disintegrates into millions of high-poly fragments, we won't lock up.

Universe reboots are never pleasant.

cresshead
04-18-2008, 11:30 AM
could be nasa is hiding the truth...don't want to scare people about the end of the planet's long suffering master race coming to an end and the cockroaches taking over in 2029+

last time that happened 'we' left venus and made our new home here...we celebrated with some pyramid's if you remember...

IMI
04-19-2008, 01:06 PM
last time that happened 'we' left venus and made our new home here...we celebrated with some pyramid's if you remember...

Anyone who claims to remember The Great Pyramid Orgy simply wasn't there. :D

archijam
04-19-2008, 01:12 PM
Please, not more hairy balls or astroids. I can't take anymore.

Please Andy, your avatar is a ball on fire ;)

I think he's saying .. bring on the comets with photoreal motionblur!

Etch
04-19-2008, 01:13 PM
could be nasa is hiding the truth...don't want to scare people about the end of the planet's long suffering master race coming to an end and the cockroaches taking over in 2029+

last time that happened 'we' left venus and made our new home here...we celebrated with some pyramid's if you remember...

I say we make nice with our soon-to-be roach overlords so one day they can clone us and take mercy on us as underlings.

geothefaust
04-19-2008, 03:32 PM
I told someone about this months ago, and they didn't quite believe me. This is a very serious issue, and it's unfortunate that all governments on (or in?) Earth, haven't devised some kind of repulsion plan or course adjustments for the thing. But like someone else posted above, parking that thing in orbit would sure be sweet, we could mine the crap out of it.

hrgiger
04-20-2008, 05:52 PM
and thered be very little collision detection anyway so it'd probably pass right through the earth

Good one Pooby.

jburford
04-21-2008, 03:11 PM
could be nasa is hiding the truth...don't want to scare people about the end of the planet's long suffering master race coming to an end and the cockroaches taking over in 2029+

last time that happened 'we' left venus and made our new home here...we celebrated with some pyramid's if you remember...

Amen! My thoughts exactly. (of course, who knows for sure) Is that they knew all along but did not want to get a massive scare going which can not be controlled. (I mean, if all the workers are scared and know that a larger part of the world is coming to an end, who would show up for work to keep their profits up til the end?)

jburford
04-21-2008, 03:13 PM
hmnn, I hear a sequel to the Planet of the Apes Films. . . ..

this time with Bruce Willis in the leading (human) role.

Steamthrower
04-21-2008, 04:00 PM
Shoot. I was hoping for Vin Diesel.

cresshead
04-21-2008, 04:21 PM
more like planet of the apps!

lightwave being the underdog who wins out in the end!