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View Full Version : Good news? Old news? Interesting market stats...



Doug Nicola
05-08-2003, 03:36 PM
I posted this link and some thoughts on the Arnie/Lux thread, but after rereading the article and thinking about it some more, I thought it interesting enough for its own thread.

3D animation app market stats (http://www.digitalmedianet.com/HTM/RESEARCH/Meloni/spotlight/spotlight_animation.htm)

Personally, I think this looks great for NewTek. Does anyone have any hard recent stats?

Beamtracer
05-08-2003, 04:05 PM
After the massive price drops in the 3D industry (over a year ago) Chuck mentioned on one of these threads that Lightwave had managed to increase its unit sales. By how much I don't know. Also, the 3D industry is growing as a whole.

Brad Peebler gave some statistics about Lightwave numbers during his famous (or infamous) interview with CG Channel. He also admitted that the statistics from all 3D companies were pumped up to look a little bit better than they are.

It's always good to see statistics about unit sales of 3D products.

Doug Nicola
05-08-2003, 04:10 PM
Well if LW is managing to increase its unit sales, based on its already hefty unit market share, then that's really good news!:D

Beamtracer
05-08-2003, 08:56 PM
Another statistic that Newtek said after the release of Lightwave 7 was that Mac sales of Lightwave had for the first time overtaken Windows sales in Lightwave.

I don't know if it's still the same, though Worley Labs said they were getting massive amounts of Mac sales for their plugins, both the recent G2 and previous plugins.

hrgiger
05-08-2003, 09:12 PM
Originally posted by Beamtracer
Another statistic that Newtek said after the release of Lightwave 7 was that Mac sales of Lightwave had for the first time overtaken Windows sales in Lightwave.



That seems hard to believe.
Not saying it wasn't true, but I would be curious to know how many users are Mac and how many are pc.

Karl Hansson
05-09-2003, 12:26 AM
I read somewhere that LW was the third most sold 3D app of all. Headed by Bryce and Poser I think it was. I think I read this in the 3D world mag but I cat remember wich issue. Anyway it seems like LW have one of the largest userbases in the 3D world.

sailor
05-09-2003, 03:31 AM
well my personal opinion is this: i need a tool that does what i need it to do and be able to find a job as 3d artist usin it ...i dont know what the market stats are but here in Paris its almost impossble to find a LW position....so i moved to Maya while workin in a studio with LW ...now i have much more chances to have a job...pretty simple no?
and also notice that one of the biggest commercial success for cars was...the old volkswagen beetle...i still will rather drive a porsche if i could afford one....if somebody can find the market stats for cars i wont be surprised to see that porsche isnt number one ...will u be? what does this information means to u as an artist is what u should think of....

mattclary
05-09-2003, 06:17 AM
As long as Newtek has ANY market share, it means I can still get new versions because they are still in business. And that's what keeps me happy at night.

Nicodemus
05-09-2003, 07:57 AM
It is an interesting article but it is old. Things have changed dramatically since that was published. I would be interested to see stats that are more recent and take into account the shifts that have taken place.

~L~

Doug Nicola
05-09-2003, 10:14 AM
Sailor, sure multiple skill sets will broaden your job potential, just like C++, Java, etc for a programmer. Also would make it easier to interface with more folks as a freelancer.

But VWs vs Porsches is not the right analogy here. We're talking about apps that are, more or less, on the same level (Alias, LW, 3DS, XSI...) Of course you might have to invest in a few plugins here and there to even things up...:)

What all this means to me as an artist is simple: LW is already a great art tool and will be around, with money and talent, to continually improve.

This is why ANY market share is not as good as significant market share, because doing this stuff right does take money and talent.

Yeah, it's an old article, prices have dropped, etc, but it's just that kind of unsupported statement that "things have changed dramatically" that makes my brow get all knitty. WHO REALLY KNOWS?? Have big market share shifts really taken place? Like I said in my other post in Arnie/Lux, in an established market like this, with established players, real change (not hype speculation) can be very hard to create.

Real stats would be great, but would they show dramatic shifts?

Nicodemus
05-09-2003, 10:24 AM
I think we might see some interesting changes if they were to update it. For one.....they spoke about the future proliferation (or attempt at it) by Nichimen. They have fallen off to a certain extent. They still exist but they have a lower profile than they did back then. Maya's share of the pie I am sure would look different also. The pricing of Maya, I am sure, has moved alot more units of it while Lightwaves price drop also resulted in additional surges in sales and the continued innovations keeps bringin more and more into the fold. Max has remained steady and you see alot more work being done in XSI. Maxon has come on huge and has really established its own loyal users as well as continue to wow new users.

All this can be is pure speculation so it would be hard to take that pie and rework it without definate data but Iam sure the pie would look a bit different than it did.

~L~

sailor
05-09-2003, 11:11 AM
Well Doug i wish LW and NT the best of chances for the future...i really enjoyed workin with LW and will probably still work from time to time and if production requires...this said its sad to see that for an unknown reason and until here NT has taken way to much time and i hope that it wont be too late ....while Alias has dramatically tried to improve their weaknesses (price, rendering) NT hasnt change the core of the program and every update looks more like a patch on steroids rather than a real change....still not able to model in the camera view (this is a HUGE limitation believe me) still no history (incredible time saver) and no NURBS (better have them than not having them)...i think that the userbase and LW community are great...but sometimes a little bit too extremist in the way they defend "their" soft...not sure this helped a lot in improving teh soft...to improve u must face reality and reality is that in todays market LW is gettin older real fast...every piece of the LW toolset has bein adapted and even improved in other software...there is now nothin that remains a "LW" exclusivity...

sailor
05-09-2003, 11:15 AM
BTW Doug ur commitment to LW is very nice and i appreciate ur "loyalty" this said by publishin a 3 years old article u are illustrating what i meant by "extremist" maybe a little bit blinded by ur love to LW ?...dont take it personal i was like that as well until i saw that i'm just a user not an LW or NT hooligan....

long life to LW and good luck

peace

mattclary
05-09-2003, 11:32 AM
Well then, u shuld muv on ovur to Mayu.

Doug Nicola
05-09-2003, 12:39 PM
Hehe, c'mon matt, sailor's being nice, no need for slams:)

I'm not an extremist or hooligan or "like that," yet. Dang it, I'm still at the end of the line for my tattoo!

I just thought these stats were interesting, and pleasantly surprising.

Yes, LW has limitations, but it certainly is evolving.

But for sure, I would never underestimate the power of a dedicated fan base. Most companies (or sports teams, or artists) would kill for the kind of dedication LW/NT has. This kind of dedication is what allows a good company to weather all kinds of inevitable ups and downs. Just ask Steve Jobs.

garv
05-09-2003, 03:54 PM
I'm just hoping LW will makes an industry splash with 8......it seems the only place people are taliking about LW is at exclusively LW events...like this forum......I hate to say it but among 3D artists LW doesn't seem to have a lot of clout.......I live in the San Francisco Bay area and I talk to art school students....they all are learning maya...all of them.....I recently needed someone to assist me on a project using LW....I found it extrememly difficult to find anyone in the bay area that had good skills using LW......sure I received plenty of crappy portfolios......I found one guy that was good....guess what......he's learning maya.

I don't like peeing on the parade....I'm just telling you my experience. Who knows....maybe where you live LW users are coming out of the woodwork.....but in SF......I frequently find myself the sole LW user...and frequently defending it's reputation to an army of Maya and max users.......If those 3 year old statistics are correct.....where the hell are the users!

Some of you may write replys saying " so move to maya A$$hole"!.......thats the thing.....I don't want to move to maya.....I like LW......and it's taken me 3 years to learn the program.....I'm just writing to blow off some steam.....NT needs to add something to LW to get people talking...ya know...make a splash...get people excited in LW again.
Did you see that announcement about TV paint today......Woop-de-F**kin-do!!

Maya has recently got a huge boost with the incredible work being done with it
on" The two towers".....know that's exciting news......if I was an 18 year old art student thinking about a career in 3D....which app do you think I'd be excited about...the one they made golum in or Jimmy Neutron.....

Doug Nicola
05-09-2003, 07:54 PM
OK, I see what's going on here! Maya does rip with characters, and I would have liked Gollum to win an Oscar, if he could. Truly inspired work.

LW can do pretty spiffy stuff with characters, as well, but Maya's got the visibility here with the "3D artists." I'll probably be buying Maya myself sometime in the future (a BIGGER pie!) so I can give my own character work maximum interface potential with other artists/companies. (gee, a beamer AND a porsche!)

But LW has a huge base in video and television, which is a very large but much quieter market. That's where they have a big chunk of their share.

And 3DS has an enourmous hobbyist following, along with the pros, so that puts them on top.

I agree, LW could use some new flash, and I can't wait to see what's in store...

hrgiger
05-09-2003, 09:10 PM
Originally posted by garv

Some of you may write replys saying " so move to maya A$$hole"!.......thats the thing.....I don't want to move to maya.....I like LW......and it's taken me 3 years to learn the program.....I'm just writing to blow off some steam.....NT needs to add something to LW to get people talking...ya know...make a splash...get people excited in LW again.
Did you see that announcement about TV paint today......Woop-de-F**kin-do!!



Newtek has more products then Lightwave. So they made an announcement about TV paint and Aura. It doesn't mean they're sitting idle on Lightwave. They've announced that they're previewing Lightwave8 at Siggraph months before its ship date. What else do you want? It hasn't been that long since the last upgrade to 7.5. Which by the way was free, not to mention a kick *** one.
Let me tell you something. Maya is like a pair of jeans on Jennifer Lopez's fat *****. Really expensive, and just as useful as any other pair of jeans. And everybody wants it because she's wearing them (or maya because they used it to make Gollum). Oh wait, there's more to this analogy. Everybody assumes that if they own Maya, they'll be able to create a character like Gollum. Uh, no. Just like wearing the same pair of jeans that JLO owns, doesn't make you JLO.
If you like Lightwave, then don't bother even looking over the fence into Maya's yard. You're either proficient with 3D software or you're not. Knowing Maya isn't going to guarantee you a job anymore then by being just as good in Lightwave. I would use the term for people who spend all their time envying what other software packages as render envy but that doesn't seem to fit since Maya's own renderer seems to suck *****.
Get over it people. You're going to suck just as much if you owned Maya or Softimage. Not to mention Poorer.

Doug Nicola
05-09-2003, 10:05 PM
:rolleyes: Not app envy at all... I KNOW I can create a character like Gollum with LIGHTWAVE, when I know enough about the app. It's all in there, for sure!

Point is, I LOVE 3D ANIMATION, and I don't suck at it. I think it would just be fun to know a range of apps and understand strengths and weaknesses, and just learn for the joy of it. I know many of the Super-Pros are fluent in several apps, and just WHAT is the big deal? So if I learn and use Maya, but LW is my favorite, WHO CARES???? Like someone else said, they won't mutually self-destruct if they are both on my computer (at least they haven't yet, but maybe that's a feature they left out of Maya PLE :p )

garv
05-09-2003, 10:09 PM
Hrgiger...I knew you couldn't resist my post.

One thing though...read my post...I never said I want Maya....and I don't think if I own it I will suddenly become the great 3D artist I always wanted to be....what I basicly said is that Lightwave needs some fire blown up it's ***........There is a lot of hype around Maya because of the films it's been involved in.....MAX also has a lot of momentum behind it because gaming is getting bigger every year.....even cinima4D as a fairly new package is gaining respect among artist......but I don't here a lot of talk about LW......maybe I'm just deaf...wait let me check...nope.

Oh and have you checked the job boards lately......you say knowing maya rather than LW won't get me more jobs.......the posting for LW artists are far and in between. Do a search on VFXPRO.com...see how many times Maya comes up compared to LW.

I'll say it again...I like LW...I know it and I'm comfortable using it....I'd like to see it used more often everywhere and I'd like to see more jobs available for the people who know it.....that's why I'm writing this post.....here's a thought.

What if NT got more involved with the major production houses....and bend over backwards to get them to use LW on there next big project.........if the project suceeds it's great PR for LW....I hope 8 kick *** as much as anybody.....but I hope it moves futher into the high-end spectrum rather than go after new users looking to make 3D icons for their websites.

Doug Nicola
05-09-2003, 10:25 PM
Oh yeah, of course, Gollum was made by his parents and the One Ring. And I think J.R.R. Tolkien had something to do with it, too.

But seriously, who did make that evil little twerp, if not Maya? I do like staying on the right side of the facts.

hrgiger
05-09-2003, 11:06 PM
Originally posted by garv
Hrgiger...I knew you couldn't resist my post.

Oh and have you checked the job boards lately......you say knowing maya rather than LW won't get me more jobs.......the posting for LW artists are far and in between. Do a search on VFXPRO.com...see how many times Maya comes up compared to LW.



It doesn't matter. Ask Victor Navone or Jeffery Lew what it takes to get a job in the 3D industry. Victor works for Pixar and Jeffery Lew was lead animator on the Matrix Reloaded. Both of them got their jobs using a $200 Animation program (it's now $300), no maya, Lightwave, Max, Softimage, etc... to be found. The fact is, raw talent and ambition got them their jobs, not the software. If you're talented enough, it doesn't matter what software you're using.

I wasn't really speaking to you directly garv. I mostly wanted to quote back the Woop-de-F**kin-do!! comment about the TV paint. It doesn't really have anything to do with Lightwave development so I didn't see the relevance. People compain about Lightwave's PR like it's really suffering or something. You did happen to look at the market share charts? I think the software as in it's features and it's value pretty much speak for themselves.

And to Doug Nicola... it's only my humble opinion that it's better to know one app extremely well then to know two or more only medicore. And I wasn't saying you suck at it, I was just making a general statement that I see a lot of people who think that if they buy Maya, it will make them better animators just from the act of owning it.

Chuck
05-10-2003, 08:14 AM
Originally posted by sailor
BTW Doug ur commitment to LW is very nice and i appreciate ur "loyalty" this said by publishin a 3 years old article u are illustrating what i meant by "extremist" maybe a little bit blinded by ur love to LW ?...dont take it personal i was like that as well until i saw that i'm just a user not an LW or NT hooligan....

long life to LW and good luck

peace

Calling people who happen to disagree with you extremists or hooligans is falling back on ad hominem, trying to discredit the fellow on the other side of the discussion based on criticism of his or her personality rather than supporting your point of view with logic and facts. Stick to debating the issues, and delete the name-calling.

sailor
05-10-2003, 08:37 AM
Hello Chuck,

i didnt want to offend anybody and i think that Doug understood it better than u...:) but just in case it was misunderstood i apologize...i was actually more talkin about me in the past as a "hooligan" rather than talkin about Doug there...but yes i think that by tryin to illustrate a point of view vith old articles is not very objective


sorry

Doug Nicola
05-10-2003, 10:45 AM
Nope, no offense here. But maybe "extremist" and "hooligan" is considered complimentary around here....:D although I do value Chuck's point about debating issues and not personalities :)

Anyways, indeed I was trying to be objective. That's why I pointed out very clearly in my subject line that this could be considered "old news." And I also asked about hard recent stats for the same reason of objectivity.

private
05-10-2003, 11:08 AM
Originally posted by Doug Nicola
Oh yeah, of course, Gollum was made by his parents and the One Ring. And I think J.R.R. Tolkien had something to do with it, too.

But seriously, who did make that evil little twerp, if not Maya? I do like staying on the right side of the facts.

They used Mirai for Gollum I believe, and "one of the best modelers in the world" did it.

Three year old stats are abosolutely useless. In addition, how scientific was the study? Who did the study? Pretty weak, unsupported graph in an industry that changes and is as fickle as the 3d industry.

garv
05-10-2003, 11:14 AM
It doesn't really matter what software golum was created in.....maya or proprietary or even lightwave.......what matters from a business point of view is who takes the credit........I believe it was alias/wavefront at the Oscars this past year....and it's maya thats most credited with the lord of the rings. It's a good feeling for 3D users to see their software package at the Oscars.

Which is really what I've been talking about......excitement.

Take the case of Picasso and Braque.......among art historians there's debate about who actually created cubism...Picasso or Braque......by positioning himself at the right place at the right time today picasso is a household name....and considered the creator of cubism.......unlike Braque who has for the general public faded into obscurity ........If you replace Picasso and braque with the software of your choosing you'll see my point. No-doubt Braque was a great artist....but he wasn't able to compete with picasso's salesmanship.

When the serious art school students start snickering at the mention of a particular software package.....you'll know what I mean.

hrgiger
05-10-2003, 06:49 PM
Originally posted by garv

When the serious art school students start snickering at the mention of a particular software package.....you'll know what I mean.

Who values the opinion of a serious art student anyway?

TyVole
05-10-2003, 07:18 PM
Originally posted by Chuck
Calling people who happen to disagree with you extremists or hooligans is falling back on ad hominem, trying to discredit the fellow on the other side of the discussion based on criticism of his or her personality rather than supporting your point of view with logic and facts. Stick to debating the issues, and delete the name-calling.

I think there's plenty of "ad hominem" on both sides of this debate.

Chuck
05-10-2003, 09:23 PM
Originally posted by TyVole
I think there's plenty of "ad hominem" on both sides of this debate.

...and certainly everyone should make an effort to avoid that.

WizCraker
05-10-2003, 10:11 PM
[list=1]
A night going to see <Put Big Special Effects Movie Name here>: $8
Using Maya because you think they used it: Free - URL looks like it's hunting for warez - removed it. - Moderator
Knowing the Truth, you Buy Lightwave 3D Instead: Priceless - URL went to Newteks site to buy lightwave - removed it. No point in confusing people. - WizCraker
[/list=1]

For everything else there is IRC (http://www.ircspy.com)

***Legal stuff below***
No point for this anymore Moderator likes controlling the posting of protected information.
***END of Legal stuff***

Beamtracer
05-11-2003, 06:01 AM
What's this? Some kind of advertisement?

Back to the topic...

I don't really care how many people are using Maya, I prefer to use Lightwave because of its superior rendering abilities. The quality of your render is vitally important for video, film, or television work.

WizCraker
05-11-2003, 06:06 PM
What's this? Some kind of advertisement?

Actually it is more like making fun. The jist of it for the slow is. Even though in Theory you can get Maya 5 for Free [which you really can, though not legal in some countries--You'll never see it, the Mods like to delete links to Legal sites protected under the DMCA] you would rather pay $1500 for Lightwave because you really know that it is better [price isn't everything].

On a side note to the Moderator who likes to censor stuff. Shame On You IRCSpy.com (http://www.ircspy.com) is protected under US Law for indexing information just like Google (http://www.google.com/). I guess we could debate back and forth of the moral issues of useing a search engine to find information for educational purposes or not, but we can leave that for somebody else. Is it not up to the user to choose on how he wants to use that knowledge? If you start controling what the user can see you will become another dictator like are friends Hitler and stalin bent on controling peoples choice.

Chuck
05-12-2003, 05:05 PM
The fact that a site such as IRCSpy is not responsible for the content uncovered during the use of their search engine does not mean that other sites are obligated to let links stand that are likely to retrieve warez, just because they happen to go through IRCSpy.

This is a moderated site, and says so on every page. There is no slippery slope here - we're already on the other side of the divide between unregulated venues and moderated venues.

Warez posts, even just potential, are one thing that's not allowed here. In posting the link, you expressed in the material you've since deleted that you clearly understood that folks might well be able to acquire illegal copies of Maya. Saying that people are free to use the information that link brings up as they choose, and that others can debate the morality is simply rationalizing away your personal responsibility for your actions. Comparing people to Hitler or Stalin because they remove a link capable of aiding in an illegal act is not only incorrect, it trivializes the suffering and deaths of millions.

hrgiger
05-12-2003, 05:39 PM
Well stated Chuck. I was just going to something about it being an idiot thing to post or something along those lines...;)

Doug Nicola
05-14-2003, 11:41 AM
To private:
The stats were published by DigitalMediaNet, which publishes online newsletters for every conceivable digital media market, including DVDs for llama trainers. They would seem to have a huge audience of about 200,000 opinionated fact-checkers, so they probably wouldn't have published the chart if it wasn't fairly accurate, or else they'd get ripped to shreds, which they apparently didn't.

Of course things change, but I'm not sure you could call this info absolutely useless. For example, "SoftImage used to be the number-one app for professional film use only a few years ago—a position usurped by Maya." (according to this guy ZAON 3d app thread (http://www.zaon.org/showthread.php?threadid=299) ). But people seem to interpret this shift as if Maya has taken over the 3D universe. Professional film is only one segment of many.

sailor
05-14-2003, 02:15 PM
agree with ya we often forget that films are maybe small market compraed to the rest...this said movie market is very interesting because it is certainly the one demandin the highest quality...if u want to test a product in production hell the film industry is the right place to do it...