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mattclary
06-15-2005, 06:32 AM
An article by Robert Cringley. The article has at least on major flaw regarding 64bit processors, but ignoring that, the scenario is eerily plausible.

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20050609.html

LSlugger
06-15-2005, 07:56 AM
While he does seem to be ignorant of the EM64T Pentiums, it's not clear that all of the Macs will use 64-bit chips. The information Apple has released mentions IA32, rather than AMD64 or EM64T. The Pentium-M (Yonah?) rumored to be used in the first laptop is not 64 bit.

If you think about this it means that, in a short time, Apple has gone from one architecture to four (using GCC nomenclature): ppc, ppc64, i686, and x86_64. A universal binary could itself contain two fat binaries.

In practice, ppc64 is probably a non starter, but we'll have to see how Apple handles x86_64. Will Apple deliver a fully 64-bit version of OS X, or will it be limited to a few frameworks, as in 10.4?

BeeVee
06-15-2005, 08:32 AM
Here's a riposte to the forthright Mr. Cringely: http://www.hdforindies.com/2005/06/pbs-i-cringely-june-9-2005-going-for

B

mattclary
06-15-2005, 11:13 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't actually boost Apple's sales of the current hardware, as the faithful try to get it before it goes away.

Even if Apple takes a hit, they have iPod sales to keep the cash flowing.

js33
06-16-2005, 02:25 AM
Well I highly doubt Intel is willing to give up an 82% marketshare for a 3% marketshare but I do see that this could happen gradually over time. Intel wants someone like Apple that is exciting and innovative to move boxes faster in more market segments. Microsoft doesn't exactly have Intel's interests in mind as much these days with the slow rollout of Longhorn people have little reason to upgrade their machines and MS switching to PPC ships for the Xbox. Intel is highly dependant on Windows for it's current market and that is unlikely to change soon. If Intel was to buy Apple they would have an uphill battle to persuade people overnight to buy a new machine and all new software although this could happen faster than we might think. MS has been plagued with security issues for some time although they do seem to have a better handle on it these days. What if MS suddenly pulls all support for Intel and goes exclusively with AMD? Now somehow I just don't ever see that happening. Both MS and Intel have too much to lose by breaking ties suddenly. But imagine a future shootout MS/AMD/PPC vs Apple/Intel? Let the wars begin.

Cheers,
JS

eblu
06-16-2005, 02:12 PM
I always regarded the intel/microsoft hegemony as unbreakable. Until recently.
Microsoft moved the Xbox to the PowerPC, apparently because the cloners felt that the Xbox was Too similar to the IBM clone Platform. so they pressured MS to make it more of a black box (maybe its not all of the reasons, but I know for a fact that it is One of). MS capitulated in what can only be described as MS Style... embracing and extending the idea, beyond its original intentions... the 360 Not only uses a PowerPC, but it also drives HD, and has quite a few other features that put it squarely in "HD Media PC" territory", pitting MS against its own clients! and it has at least some backwards compatibility with the old Xbox Titles.

thats the sticking point. it means that Microsoft has some sort of pathway to emulate, or translate Intel Based Games to PowerPC. These games have a great deal in common with their PC counterParts. so... MS is actively maintaining an escape hatch from Intel. it may not be useful to move, say... an OS, and it may not ever be meant for anything else besides Games... but it is a big kick in the stomach that wasn't lost on Intel or the cloners. MS will bow to your will, but only if it eviscerates you in the process. The XBox (and PS3) is set up now to eat the Media PC market (at 300 bucks, of course it will win!) and MS is back in control of the unruly and dwindling clone market.

Now Apple is moving to Intel? the megahertz wars are over apparently because everybody is switching sides. now Macs are gonna ship with the same, not comparable... the SAME processors that Clones use. MS is noncommittal about EVERYTHING. and Now Michael Dell is saying he'd Love to sell Mac os X (an obvious "you don't scare me." shot at MS).

its very likely that Apple moving to intel will knock the legs out of a few cloners. I'm not saying Apple will eat those sales, just that the effectiveness of the various business plans, marketing, product timing, and price points will be thrown into flux. Many of the cloners keep No money at hand, and with the crazy body language the computer market is giving off right now, consumers may not be at a loss to actually understand whats going on, screwing up spreadsheets and balances from here to the ends of the earth.

it certainly is going to be a crazy transition, even if the hardware/software part of it works perfectly.

js33
06-16-2005, 07:07 PM
Isn't it cool. :D The industry was getting stagnent. This will shake it up a bit and now we may see more innovation from all companies rather than a few and the rest follow or clone. Also with about 50% of Windows users, mainly in the corporate segment, still using Windows 2000 MS is having a hard time convincing them to upgrade to XP. Many will wait for Longhorn and some of the corporate users will probably still cling to Win 2000 until the last possible moment.

I just hope for Apple's sake that Intel can keep up the innovation with AMD or we will have another divide. Apple will be stuck on Intel and the ones using AMD may have the better performing systems. Then it will be AMD vs. Intel instead of PPC vs. Intel/AMD.

The Opterons are looking really good now and are due to go quad-core Q1 2006. The only problem with them is they are rather expensive. So AMD could become the new Apple while Apple becomes the new PC. :eek:

The future is sure to be interesting if nothing else. :p

Cheers,
JS

JackDeL
06-17-2005, 07:35 PM
... So AMD could become the new Apple while Apple becomes the new PC. :eek:

The future is sure to be interesting if nothing else. :p

Cheers,
JS


Oh great! now I AM going to have nightmares! ;) :D

js33
06-18-2005, 01:06 AM
Just count the growing market share and you won't have nightmares. :p

Cheer,
JS

pat-lek
06-18-2005, 02:58 PM
Intel / Mac : THE True!!! (!!!)>

The reason why:

http://files.maunier.org/renduquicktimeleger.mov

Boo!
06-19-2005, 04:13 AM
...ha-ha...WICKED! :D :p :D
LOVE THE ANIMATION...
ought to keep a couple of mouths shut for a little while at least :p
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