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robertoortiz
10-02-2014, 08:29 PM
Quote:"Autodesk Plans to Go Subscription-Only Over Next One to Two Years



A little more than a year after first revealing its desktop subscription plans, Autodesk says it's preparing to stop selling perpetual licenses of its software entirely. The switch won't be flipped overnight, but will be implemented a little bit at a time over the next one to two years, the company said.

The roll-out of desktop subscriptions "is going incredibly well," said Autodesk Senior Vice President of Industry Strategy and Marketing Andrew Anagnost yesterday, speaking during a presentation as part of Autodesk's Investor Day 2014. He said 35 percent of its subscription customers are completely new to Autodesk products. Still, he cited Autodesk figures showing that 2.9 million users of its products are still on perpetual licenses as the impetus for putting a firmer push behind the pay-as-you-go subscription model for software.
- See more at:
http://www.studiodaily.com/2014/10/autodesk-plans-to-go-subscription-only-over-next-one-to-two-years/?utm_source=feedly&utm_reader=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=autodesk-plans-to-go-subscription-only-over-next-one-to-two-years

erikals
10-02-2014, 08:42 PM
i'll only be renting for a short period of time anyway, so cool by me... http://erikalstad.com/backup/misc.php_files/smile.gif
though don't feel the same about Adobe... :/

actually wish i could rent Maya for 1 month only, after all, i would only use Maya as a plugin

that said, having Houdini Indie i won't be using Maya any time soon either.
strange, but won't look into AutoDesk products for some time...


as a generalist LightWave & Houdini covers my workflow just fine... unfortunately, as it be nice to look into Maya again.
maybe once BiFrost becomes much stronger, i'll have a second look...

again > as a generalist

Surrealist.
10-03-2014, 03:25 PM
Maybe I am not following your post. But you can rent Maya for one month only. Now.

Megalodon2.0
10-03-2014, 03:29 PM
Maybe I am not following your post. But you can rent Maya for one month only. Now.

Which is great. CHOICE is good.

erikals
10-03-2014, 03:58 PM
Maybe I am not following your post. But you can rent Maya for one month only. Now.

ah, thought it was for minimum 3 months... http://erikalstad.com/backup/misc.php_files/smile.gif

225 € for 1 month though, pretty good :]

Dot3
10-03-2014, 03:59 PM
Thats the problem you will have no choice rental-only no perpetual licenses

Surrealist.
10-03-2014, 04:25 PM
ah, thought it was for minimum 3 months... http://erikalstad.com/backup/misc.php_files/smile.gif

225 for 1 month though, pretty good :]

Yeah the price comes down the longer you rent. There is monthly, quarterly and yearly.

For yearly when you add up the cost of a perp license and subscription rental makes the most sense to me.

You can do the math and make up your own mind over say, 4-5 years.

But the way I see it, I think overall prices for software are going to be dropping in the future. Indie versions will also be more of a norm and that along with open source, impinging more and more.

Megalodon2.0
10-03-2014, 04:29 PM
Thats the problem you will have no choice rental-only no perpetual licenses

Exactly. Right NOW there IS choice. When that goes out the window, many people will have to make decisions.

If LW3DG ever decides to go subscription only, I'll be learning Blender and Modo.

erikals
10-03-2014, 04:44 PM
the reason why i like the AutoDesk subscription is because i have no plans of using a "fulltime" AutoDesk product,
the price / upgrades are just way too high... :l

that's why i welcome monthly subscription, it's a gift for a LightWave user, i can now use Maya as a plugin http://erikalstad.com/backup/misc.php_files/047.gif

http://erikalstad.com/backup/misc.php_files/lwicon.png

Surrealist.
10-03-2014, 04:51 PM
Yeah, cool. Also depending on what you are doing, if it does not require the full Maya features there is also Maya, LT.

erikals
10-03-2014, 05:03 PM
yes, the VFX tools in Maya is what i would be using though, so it would have to be the full version.

but for now Houdini Indie < > LightWave will be the way... http://erikalstad.com/backup/misc.php_files/icon_biggrin.gif :caffeine:

cresshead
10-03-2014, 11:00 PM
autodesk is all about building, structures, planning, roads, rail.....product design... and NOT movies, tv and games!

media and entertainment is just 8% revenue - that's compositing apps, grading etc and 3d apps and 2d apps..mobile apps ipad apps.....all together...somewhere in that is maya and 3ds max....2% maybe.

https://scontent-b-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/t31.0-8/1965611_10152777493707871_5627263259441414005_o.jp g

Surrealist.
10-03-2014, 11:41 PM
yes, the VFX tools in Maya is what i would be using though, so it would have to be the full version.

but for now Houdini Indie < > LightWave will be the way... http://erikalstad.com/backup/misc.php_files/icon_biggrin.gif :caffeine:

Yeah just my opinion - as a Maya user - there are some things that I would definitely lean towards as far as VFX in Maya. But it would be mostly for character stuff like cloth and hair. The new tools they are developing have a way to go yet. But cloth and hair are really well flushed out for character work. Pretty much the best in my opinion (even over syflex cloth which I have also used in XSI). So for me it would be Maya for character animation work. Add the new version of Renderman to get some nice hair and fur renders (another thing I have planned) and the character side is covered very well.

That is my assessment for what I want to do.

I agree with you on Houdini. I lean that way and have plans to use it as well. I think it is better time invested for VFX (not to mention a much better deal) There is also a Houdni Engine for Maya.

Snosrap
10-04-2014, 11:56 PM
This will really hurt a lot of small to midsize companies that integrate Autodesk products with 3rd party PLM's -product lifecycle management - many of which do not update their software for months or years after a new Autodesk release. We were stuck with Inventor 2010 for years because our PLM vendor became stagnate in it's development. We recently dumped that vendor in part so we could update our Autodesk suite, but were still only able to update to 2012. I think part of this strategy is to alienate those 3rd parties so Autodesk becomes the end to end solution with their own PLM offerings. I think in the end this will hurt AD as all corporations have their up and down years and may not want to commit to the subscription, especially when they can continue their engineering work just fine with older software.

safetyman
10-06-2014, 06:02 AM
Since Maya/Max are the "industry standards" this will have a ripple effect throughout the 3d software industry (and perhaps other software as well). It's hard to charge $1495 for a 3d tool, when your competition is charging $185 a month (which works out to less than $1495 for a year). As was said earlier, other companies will have to lower their prices drastically in order to survive, but that may not be enough. It may force other companies to follow suit and switch to a monthly fee structure, which could be a good thing if NewTek undercuts AD by 50% or more. A shakeup is coming and it's unknown what the effects will be longterm.

JohnMarchant
10-06-2014, 07:23 AM
Even at that price it wont really hurt NT, upgrades are far cheaper and over a longer period for LW. I know a few AD users who have not been so impressed with some of the updates as of late.

NT would have to go a long way to match AD products and its no where near that yet. Maybe in a few years. If NT tried it now it would be a disaster unless it was a low price, it could not justify it especially when
you look at the capabilities of Blender and other free stuff.

I think its products like Blender that other 3D packages should be more worried about especially AD.

JohnMarchant
10-06-2014, 07:26 AM
Even at that price it wont really hurt NT, upgrades are far cheaper and over a longer period for LW. I know a few AD users who have not been so impressed with some of the updates as of late.

NT would have to go a long way to match AD products and its no where near that yet. Maybe in a few years. If NT tried it now it would be a disaster unless it was a low price, it could not justify it especially when
you look at the capabilities of Blender and other free stuff.

I think its products like Blender that other 3D packages should be more worried about especially AD.

It depends on what you do with it. If you are predominately a modeler then Maya and even Houdini are a bit of a nightmare. I like LW and Modo as modelers, but VFX work is now down to Maya and Houdini really. So there
is room for scope for LW-Houdini package. I know the architecture in LW is getting on a bit. However Maya and Max are in a similar position. Excalibur has been going on for over 5 years, if indeed it is still going on.

Snosrap
10-06-2014, 07:35 AM
If the user keeps up with the subscription does his/her old versions of the software quit working? How does this work with Adobe products?

Surrealist.
10-06-2014, 07:43 AM
I think its products like Blender that other 3D packages should be more worried about especially AD.



They already are and it is already showing. I really do believe that the indi (also LT) versions we are seeing is a direct response to the improvement and popularity of Blender as well as other open source design software.

No one is concerned that Blender is going to "take over". But I am sure that the companies look at it as a sale lost to Blender is still a sale lost.

t not offering this means these people use Blender, and basically, sale lost.

Surrealist.
10-06-2014, 07:50 AM
If the user keeps up with the subscription does his/her old versions of the software quit working? How does this work with Adobe products?

To clarify "desktop subscription" is their term for rental. Perpetual license has a "subscription service" Subscription Advantage Pack which is tied into a version you can keep virtually forever.

Rentals are just that in this case. You rent, you don't own. You don't pay you don't use the software.

That is what scares everyone - for good reason.

But when you look at the numbers it starts to look differently as far as money out of pocket.

Looking at it that way after two years owning my AD products, I'd still be ahead for the next two years as far as money out of pocket is concerned. So for me I'd rather have had that money for other things (or earning interest). And considering I do actually enjoy having the latest versions of all my software, buying once is not an option for me anyway. That is just me.

I don't think a lot of people are going to be happy with this.

But the bright side is the more people who turn to OSS in response to this will in turn continue to drive prices down.

Megalodon2.0
10-06-2014, 01:55 PM
But when you look at the numbers it starts to look differently as far as money out of pocket.
Only if you use most or all of the software.

On the Adobe forums, many already calculated that people such as myself who were on Production Premium - or the suite just under me - would end up paying more. It's only those who actually bought the Master Collection that were saving. And I would bet that most did not buy that suite, but the ones below it since most people don't use ALL of the software.

Surrealist.
10-06-2014, 07:24 PM
When the Adobe rental was first introduced, I ran the numbers, I had photoshop version CS5. I never owned any master collections and the math still worked out. I think it was like over 5 years that I calculated - even for a single version. General misconception I guess that you have to buy into a suite. After trying the full suite for a year, I decided to cut back to only photoshop. And even with that into account. I still am ahead on what CS6 extended would have cost me - even for an upgrade.

In fact compared to AD I think the Adobe numbers are far more favorable.

Additionally I took another offer to save. My PS is now costing me about 10 bucks a month. Yearly that is scarcely what upgrades would have cost.

Everyone just has to do the math from their perspective and make a choice.

lightscape
10-06-2014, 07:41 PM
I think its products like Blender that other 3D packages should be more worried about especially AD.


Not going to happen. The TOP professional in this field are using maya and max in most AAA facilities.
They look down on blender or any app not AD except houdini.
The status quo won't change for the next 10-20 years until the top pro's are near retirement.

The real money are also generated from these real studios not from the numerous indie studios that go bankcrupt in 1-2 years. Indie studios have a maximum of 100k income ceiling to be able to use indie software. That just tells you that its not sustainable.

Surrealist.
10-06-2014, 09:02 PM
I understand those thoughts and ideas. I don't feel they are fully accurate and represent what is really happening on the ground. My take on it is this.

I don't believe there is a "status quo" necessarily. I believe that there are talented hardworking and competitive professionals that use the best tools that they can get their hands on to do the job. And these people are all over the map, not just at AAA studios. Talented hard working individual artists/freelances use the tools they think can give them a competitive edge. By and large that is Maya, Max XSI, etc.

The only studios I would consider "real" are the big Hollywood studios Disney/Pixar, WB DW, etc.

From there down through the professional ranks of VFX studios, there are an infinite number of shades of grey. Not only in income levels but also type of industry they service. It is mind boggling the number of applications for 3D software. And also quite varied the level of need for robust tools like Maya. So many people opt out. And this makes a far more diverse market than just "real studios".

Software companies have to look at the entire scope of the industry when developing and marketing software. And they are not concerned with the success rate - something they can not even predict at the highest levels - of companies.

They are mainly - especially in the case of Autodesk - concerned with market share.

So when they see a large percentage of a market go to something like Blender it has a significant impact on the potential future growth and on the software company's foothold in the market. They are worried about this. They are not concerned with percentage of smaller indies that will survive or fail. For each one of these companies that fail, the individuals move on, and they take the software/pipeline with them to other concerns or individual use. This is true with all software. And these companies are not going to site Blender as the reason, and rightly so. And will not just stop using it and move to Maya as the reason for failure. (Unless they want those tools specifically - my personal case in point for example)

Therefore once AD looses this share, it is more or less gone. It is a sale lost. It does not matter to where.

And so I do not believe you are going to see this market go away, nor are you going to see companies turn their nose up to it. They are not now.

Megalodon2.0
10-06-2014, 10:20 PM
When the Adobe rental was first introduced, I ran the numbers, I had photoshop version CS5. I never owned any master collections and the math still worked out. I think it was like over 5 years that I calculated - even for a single version. General misconception I guess that you have to buy into a suite. After trying the full suite for a year, I decided to cut back to only photoshop. And even with that into account. I still am ahead on what CS6 extended would have cost me - even for an upgrade.

In fact compared to AD I think the Adobe numbers are far more favorable.

Additionally I took another offer to save. My PS is now costing me about 10 bucks a month. Yearly that is scarcely what upgrades would have cost.

Everyone just has to do the math from their perspective and make a choice.

Interesting. I've only paid $600 for each upgrade of Production Premium. Rental would cost me the same amount over 12 months but afterwards I would have nothing to show for it. I could sell my Production Premium before. You can't sell Adobe CC. And that's upgrading every time. If you skipped an upgrade - which MANY do - CC is even more cost ineffective. Of course Adobe stopped that anyway with their lie of "upgrade to CS6 now or you won't be able to upgrade to CS7 when it comes out." They disallowed skipping because they knew people skipped upgrades - which was primarily because Adobe did not provide enough incentive with features in the new version. This is not the fault of consumers but the fault of Adobe. And they fix this by punishing the users. Considering the original Adobe mission statement, this is quite the opposite of the founders of Adobe.

Surrealist.
10-06-2014, 11:05 PM
Yep I got you and your situation.

Had I owned a suite already I would have done the numbers quite differently. As anyone would. I went from CS 5 to access of the entire Adobe suite for a great savings to me, for, as I pointed out, at least the next 5 years.

That is why I keep reiterating, each person has to evaluate this for themselves. There is no blanket scenario for everyone.

I am going to be facing a different scenario with my AD suite as as far as I know, eventually, I will be forced to rent. When at the moment, I am on subscription for software I already own. So either A) Autodesk is going to offer me a special price (which I seriously doubt) or B) I will simply opt out of subscription service until my products go rental.

Than at that point I will own perceptually the last versions of everything, which for me includes, Mudbox, MotionBuilder Max, Maya and XSI. (Max I got for "free" with the cancellation of XSI)

Then from there I will pick and choose what I want to rent based on my financial situation and needs as well as keep an eye on Blender to see how it shapes up. Doubtful it will replace Maya any time soon.

In the mean time I really do think all of this spells more competition.

Megalodon2.0
10-06-2014, 11:41 PM
In the mean time I really do think all of this spells more competition.
I hope that you are right. It really is the only thing that has the potential to force ANY company to move back in the direction of the customer.

Surrealist.
10-06-2014, 11:51 PM
Ha ha ha... Well I would not be that optimistic. But I think the market will force companies to lower prices. And they are contributing to this trend with rentals both directly and indirectly.

Megalodon2.0
10-07-2014, 12:05 AM
Ha ha ha... Well I would not be that optimistic. But I think the market will force companies to lower prices.
Is that not IN the direction of the customer? :dance:

Surrealist.
10-07-2014, 02:33 AM
lol, yeah, I did not read "force". So yeah. I was being redundant.

Red_Oddity
10-07-2014, 04:26 AM
If they go rental only, we will stop upgrading, period.

Right now we are on subscription, which is 665 euros per license annually, the rental only option (using the current rental pricing for Maya as benchmark) is 1890 euros annually, which would mean we literally would be paying 2 times as much as we currently do, which we simply can't afford.

We'll probably stick with the last pre rental only version (like the rest of the world i guess), and add Fabric Engine and Houdini.


And going by the pretty abysmal updates of the last couple of years and the constant deterioration of Maya's stability, Autodesk can count their blessings we actually are still paying for subscriptions.

safetyman
10-07-2014, 05:24 AM
Megalodon hit on a good point: Adobe's "updates" aren't worth the update price, i.e., the monthly fee you're paying to keep using the software. I can't comment on AD products since I don't use them, but I've heard similar things from Max and Maya users. This subscription model does two things from my point of view:
1) Generates a constant stream of income for the company, and as a result,
2) Provides less incentive to improve the product substantially.

Think about it; if you know you've got a firm user base that pay you each month no matter what, why would you take on added risk with major updates. In AD's case, since their software works well for their customers for the most part, I can understand not wanting to fix what ain't broken. Adobe, since they are the only game in town for a lot of professionals, has ZERO incentive to make major updates. Hopefully, this will open the door for other companies to take some of their users away, which will force Adobe into a more user-friendly stance. I doubt it, but one can hope.

Without the fear of losing users, these big companies can basically do whatever they want to make their stakeholders happy. That's bad, even if you don't feel like you're paying too much each month.

Surrealist.
10-07-2014, 05:25 AM
Right now we are on subscription, which is 665 euros per license annually, the rental only option (using the current rental pricing for Maya as benchmark) is 1890 euros annually, which would mean we literally would be paying 2 times as much as we currently do, which we simply can't afford.

Do they have a different price structure where you are? Because the annual 1,470 USD comes out to 1,170 Euro.

Even that is quite a bit more and is an issue. Was just discussing it with my sales rep. I am not sure what they are planning to do. But you have a whole bunch of companies already on subscription. I don't think they have even worked out what the plan is in this scenario. There are lots of options they could work out. It is going to be a wait and see, for me.

Surrealist.
10-07-2014, 05:40 AM
Megalodon hit on a good point: Adobe's "updates" aren't worth the update price, i.e., the monthly fee you're paying to keep using the software. I can't comment on AD products since I don't use them, but I've heard similar things from Max and Maya users. This subscription model does two things from my point of view:
1) Generates a constant stream of income for the company, and as a result,
2) Provides less incentive to improve the product substantially.

Think about it; if you know you've got a firm user base that pay you each month no matter what, why would you take on added risk with major updates. In AD's case, since their software works well for their customers for the most part, I can understand not wanting to fix what ain't broken. Adobe, since they are the only game in town for a lot of professionals, has ZERO incentive to make major updates. Hopefully, this will open the door for other companies to take some of their users away, which will force Adobe into a more user-friendly stance. I doubt it, but one can hope.

Without the fear of losing users, these big companies can basically do whatever they want to make their stakeholders happy. That's bad, even if you don't feel like you're paying too much each month.

Well yes in a very linear way of thinking this could be true. But there are flaws in this scenario.There is the tremendous demand on them from "power users" and second, the fact that even though it seems they have a strong hold, there is no such thing as standing still, and completely aside from the passion that the devlopers have to create new and better tools (look at Maya over the last 2 updates which has shown where they are taking this) , the market will not allow them to sit back and "do as they please". Maya for instance is starting in on the bifrost development cycle which is new. Could they afford to just "do as they please" with that? I don't think so. Not with Houdini knocking on the door. That along with the new veiwport tools and the money they are investing in open sudiv, Maya is really now more than ever going places. And it is going places with technology that is openly available in a lot of respects. Even Blender is going to be taking advantage of this technology.

https://twitter.com/tonroosendaal/status/465925083572494336

So in my opinion, no way any companies can "sit back" in any way shape or form especially now. The competition is getting even more tough and this is going to get worse.

Red_Oddity
10-07-2014, 06:50 AM
Do they have a different price structure where you are? Because the annual 1,470 USD comes out to 1,170 Euro.

Even that is quite a bit more and is an issue. Was just discussing it with my sales rep. I am not sure what they are planning to do. But you have a whole bunch of companies already on subscription. I don't think they have even worked out what the plan is in this scenario. There are lots of options they could work out. It is going to be a wait and see, for me.

Yes, Autodesk pretty much uses the same pricing model Adobe uses, which we call the 'f*** you, because we can' pricing model.

As EU citizens we officially are only allowed to order through official resellers, which notes the price as 1890 euros (excluding VAT), and, there's not many software companies that use the actual currency exchange rate index to convert from USD to other currencies.

Surrealist.
10-07-2014, 07:03 AM
Yeah, that blows, big time.

sadkkf
10-07-2014, 12:40 PM
This will really hurt a lot of small to midsize companies that integrate Autodesk products with 3rd party PLM's -product lifecycle management - many of which do not update their software for months or years after a new Autodesk release. We were stuck with Inventor 2010 for years because our PLM vendor became stagnate in it's development. We recently dumped that vendor in part so we could update our Autodesk suite, but were still only able to update to 2012. I think part of this strategy is to alienate those 3rd parties so Autodesk becomes the end to end solution with their own PLM offerings. I think in the end this will hurt AD as all corporations have their up and down years and may not want to commit to the subscription, especially when they can continue their engineering work just fine with older software.

I agree. Adobe's rental-only move alienates hobbyists and small businesses. Companies with money to burn don't give two whips about renting or owning a perpetual license.

sadkkf
10-07-2014, 12:44 PM
Yup. Adobe, IMO, has a long track record of weak upgrades. Very seldom did they offer must-have features, which, I'm thinking, caused many people to skip an upgrade cycle or two, which probably triggered Adobe's rental policy. Kind of a forced upgrade plan for everyone. These are just my opinions; I know some people prefer the ongoing commitment, which is great if it works for them.

kopperdrake
10-07-2014, 01:43 PM
It'll hurt us - we use the Inventor suite, and to be honest one version is very much like the next. We're currently running 2011, and it does everything we need. To upgrade regularly just isn't worth it for us as small outfit, we'd only really upgrade if a major project warranted it - a subscription base would force us to look for much more CAD design work than comes through the door naturally, which isn't what we're about. We've survived the recession mainly due to our flexibility in our servives - we have a wide skills-base between us and have relied on that to see us through the last few years.

Some would say, buy at a level your company can afford then. There's no doubting that Inventor is a decent bit of kit, and when we bought it there was a major push by a client in that direction, which has settled down now as part of their natural development cycle. We could not have carried out that project with a lesser bit of kit. However, we now have a bit of downtime in the CAD side of things, which is fine as far as we're concerned, but we still have our Inventor software for the smaller jobs that trickle through - we can still earn money using it, and offer clients something better than a more basic piece of software. Everyone's a winner. If a major project popped up that required an upgrade, then we'd no doubt upgrade.

But this is what will happen on a subscription basis. Smaller companies like us just could not afford to go the monthly route for something like Inventor, where the CAD is *part* of our offerings, a string to our bow. AD would be forcing us to become full-time CAD guys to make it worth our while buying their software, which isn't going to happen.

Essentially the big guys will buy it, the smaller very specialist guys will buy it, but flexible outfits like ourselves won't. The silly thing is the big guys and the smaller specialist guys would have bought it anyway, so I can't really see what they stand to gain by this move.

Of course, there may be an option to rent by the month, so we could then pay per use for major project, but then you have to hope that it hasn't changed too much from the version you used last.

Red_Oddity
10-08-2014, 03:34 AM
Of course, there may be an option to rent by the month, so we could then pay per use for major project, but then you have to hope that it hasn't changed too much from the version you used last.

Last i checked with our reseller, they notified us that even though monthly prices are mentioned, the smallest duration you could rent Autodesk software was 3 months (quarterly rental).
And with the Adobe CC Team it is (was?) even worse, where the only option is renting for an entire year (and to be illegible for the advertised pricing you'd actually have to go for a 2 year rental contract.)

So far, IMHO, this whole cloud rental bull crap is nothing more than what those cryptolocker douche canoes pull, only in this case we willingly let them do it to us.

Surrealist.
10-08-2014, 03:45 AM
The reason your reseller told you that is because they do not sell the monthly option. Resellers only sell quarterly and yearly. Information I was told from my reseller. So you can do it monthly but only online.

In Adobe case, you sign up for a year sure. But, if you want to cancel you can simply change your payment information. A little tricky here, but you can do it. (this has happened by accident to me twice now). Both times I was given 30 days to "resolve the issue" and software continued to function. After that period, simply allow it to go south. Then all you have to do is sign up for a "year" again. It would only depend on the same deal being available.

Because of a situation with my bank card I am currently doing this. I was told by CS (because of my particular issue not worth going into) that I should do just this, allow it to expire and then sign up again.

Yeah not the slickest one click solution. But there is no reason you should feel shackled. CS has been very prompt and helpful with me both times. One time I had an issue with my computer. I had a technician get access to it and resolve the problem and I was up and running with my license, very quickly very directly and not any back and forth support tickets that dragged out. From my experience the CS has been top notch.

jwiede
10-08-2014, 11:40 AM
So when they see a large percentage of a market go to something like Blender it has a significant impact on the potential future growth and on the software company's foothold in the market.
Please cite your proof this has occurred for any substantial market?

Surrealist.
10-08-2014, 10:07 PM
I think for the purposes of discussion it is not necessary to call up all of the polls, surveys and market research that has already been done. Number of Blender downloads and estimated percentage of serious users. Or try to complete attempts to add up the number of small shops that use Blender and in what industry they work in. Or list out each specific market and add up its share. Much of this has been done. A lot of it I am sure would cost a lot of money to compile, and so may not have been fully completed.

Bottom line is companies are reacting to this data to varying degrees and we even have a marketing buzz word to go along with it.

safetyman
10-09-2014, 05:57 AM
Well yes in a very linear way of thinking this could be true. But there are flaws in this scenario.There is the tremendous demand on them from "power users" and second, the fact that even though it seems they have a strong hold, there is no such thing as standing still, and completely aside from the passion that the devlopers have to create new and better tools (look at Maya over the last 2 updates which has shown where they are taking this) , the market will not allow them to sit back and "do as they please". Maya for instance is starting in on the bifrost development cycle which is new. Could they afford to just "do as they please" with that? I don't think so. Not with Houdini knocking on the door. That along with the new veiwport tools and the money they are investing in open sudiv, Maya is really now more than ever going places. And it is going places with technology that is openly available in a lot of respects. Even Blender is going to be taking advantage of this technology.

https://twitter.com/tonroosendaal/status/465925083572494336

So in my opinion, no way any companies can "sit back" in any way shape or form especially now. The competition is getting even more tough and this is going to get worse.

I'm not saying that Adobe and AD are going to "sit back" and do next to nothing (well, Adobe might)... I am saying that there's less incentive to rock the boat and come up with substantial updates that could shake the industry. The bitfrost thing is good, but Maya is already the 800-pound gorilla, so no surprise there. Once they kill off Max like they did SoftImage, they'll be able to concentrate their resources on their prize puppy. When a company corners the market, as AD is doing, innovation and low price go out the window. Adobe is in this area, with little to no competition for their 2 main products, so they aren't going to shake up the industry any time soon.

I guess my whole point is that AD and Adobe are quickly going to have folks over a barrel, and once they get you hooked, they can charge whatever they want little by little.

Red_Oddity
10-09-2014, 06:35 AM
The reason your reseller told you that is because they do not sell the monthly option. Resellers only sell quarterly and yearly. Information I was told from my reseller. So you can do it monthly but only online.

In Adobe case, you sign up for a year sure. But, if you want to cancel you can simply change your payment information. A little tricky here, but you can do it. (this has happened by accident to me twice now). Both times I was given 30 days to "resolve the issue" and software continued to function. After that period, simply allow it to go south. Then all you have to do is sign up for a "year" again. It would only depend on the same deal being available.

Because of a situation with my bank card I am currently doing this. I was told by CS (because of my particular issue not worth going into) that I should do just this, allow it to expire and then sign up again.

Yeah not the slickest one click solution. But there is no reason you should feel shackled. CS has been very prompt and helpful with me both times. One time I had an issue with my computer. I had a technician get access to it and resolve the problem and I was up and running with my license, very quickly very directly and not any back and forth support tickets that dragged out. From my experience the CS has been top notch.


That's...interesting...was that for Team CC or for an individual?

Surrealist.
10-09-2014, 06:53 AM
I'm not saying that Adobe and AD are going to "sit back" and do next to nothing (well, Adobe might)... I am saying that there's less incentive to rock the boat and come up with substantial updates that could shake the industry. The bitfrost thing is good, but Maya is already the 800-pound gorilla, so no surprise there. Once they kill off Max like they did SoftImage, they'll be able to concentrate their resources on their prize puppy. When a company corners the market, as AD is doing, innovation and low price go out the window. Adobe is in this area, with little to no competition for their 2 main products, so they aren't going to shake up the industry any time soon.

I guess my whole point is that AD and Adobe are quickly going to have folks over a barrel, and once they get you hooked, they can charge whatever they want little by little.

Yeah I understand what you mean. But I while I see your logic, and it does follow certain economics maxims, I just think there are too many other factors that play into innovation that are also actually economic factors to consider in this industry.

I am not sure what AD plans are for releases of updates. It might be the same. But regardless, other companies are not standing still. There is competition. And these companies threaten portions of the market. They will be looking to make those big industry shaking releases - if they can. If AD has nothing to answer, that is not good.

I think there is a lot of faulty reasoning that Maya is only a high end tool. And that therefore it will rule forever. While in fact this is not true. There are lots of markets out there with different levels of need. And that now, true for certain applications Maya rules over all, hands down. But for others, it is overkill. And then there shades in between.

So you have a constant threat coming from other places like Modo, C4D, Houdini and LightWave, along with this anomaly no-one seems to understand called Blender.

All these apps keep innovating and encroaching on Maya's market. And the only thing that can stave all of that off is for Maya to keep moving ahead with continued innovation.

Surrealist.
10-09-2014, 06:56 AM
That's...interesting...was that for Team CC or for an individual?

Individual. Though I imagine it would be the same as it is just a billing cycle.

Megalodon2.0
10-09-2014, 01:12 PM
But there is no reason you should feel shackled. CS has been very prompt and helpful with me both times. One time I had an issue with my computer. I had a technician get access to it and resolve the problem and I was up and running with my license, very quickly very directly and not any back and forth support tickets that dragged out. From my experience the CS has been top notch.
Unfortunately the experiences of other users - as witnessed on the Adobe forums and FB - show that not everyone has the same experience. And Adobe also does not want to make it easy for you to unsubscribe.

Surrealist.
10-09-2014, 08:01 PM
Well sure. As witnessed where ever you go in the world. Not all people have the same experience with anything. I am just reporting my experience which has been positive.

So I think that is helpful. If all a person gets is how it is all so impossible and bad experience everywhere then they might feel they don't have options. And options are good I think we both agree.

Regardless of what Adobe wants, there are options if you need them. As I said, not exactly slick. But you can opt out.

Cageman
10-12-2014, 02:38 PM
Good stuff! :)

I use LW for pretty much everything, including the prototyping of rigs. Even if the prototype in LW is is good enough, I can allways ask for more money when the client says "We need it in Maya". ;)

Seriously though... I do a lot of prototyping of rigs in LW because I can get to the result so much faster. I end up doing the same rig in Maya, but with a lot more hassle. That said... animators these days, they more, or less, demand to animate in Maya or Motionbuilder.

That doesn't stop me from using LW as a prototyping tool. I whish that I could say that protoyping in LW is the most timeconsuming process of it all... it is not. Most of the time, after prototyping in LW, is to figure out how to make, for exampe, an IK-Chain to operate with different axis depending on what joint you have. In LW it is like 2-3 clicks.... in Maya it is far more complicated. :/

Oh well... just whish more animators would want to use LW... :) Would make my life a lot easier. :D