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View Full Version : Editorial: The Current State of Stagnation 3D CG in Film and Video Tools



robertoortiz
06-27-2013, 10:18 AM
Quote:

"
Bill Buxton is a veteran researcher in the human-computer interaction discipline, a pioneer of some of the most interesting and influential user interface work. As a chief scientist at Alias Wavefront (previous developers of what is now Autodesk Maya), he has had a front row seat to the developments in the computer graphics industry. In 2005, he wrote an article in IEEE Computer Graphics & Application summarizing his thoughts on where computer graphics was going, and whether or not the developments at the time were promising.

Difficult and stagnant


Even in 2005, computer graphics as an industry seemed to be waning. Buxton notes that, whether in business or in research, development has stagnated and interest had diminished. As he predicts,

Unless there is a fundamental change in how we think about things, the industry will continue to stagnate, with the key players (Avid, Alias, Discreet, and so on) just fighting for market share, rather than building and participating in healthy market growth.



Almost a decade later, this prediction has been borne out. All the listed vendors have since left the market, selling off their 3D divisions or being acquired by larger companies. One assumes that the "fundamental change" in how the industry thinks about itself has yet to happen."

http://imsky.co/blog/thoughts-on-the-state-of-3d-cg-in-film-and-video/

VonBon
06-27-2013, 10:36 AM
Monopolization of the industry is what breeds this stagnation. For companies where
it is "all" (probably about 85%) about the money, once you've taken over the market
where is the need to innovate, you have no competition therefore no reason to Create
new and better things. There is no need to take risk if there is nothing to be gained.

Pixologic would be an example of the remaining 15%

jwiede
06-27-2013, 07:13 PM
Monopolization of the industry is what breeds this stagnation. For companies where
it is "all" (probably about 85%) about the money, once you've taken over the market
where is the need to innovate, you have no competition therefore no reason to Create
new and better things. There is no need to take risk if there is nothing to be gained.

Pixologic would be an example of the remaining 15%

Where does Autodesk fall on that scale in your mind?

Riff_Masteroff
06-27-2013, 11:59 PM
Where does Autodesk fall on that scale in your mind?

What could be, is not (yet):

Off topic yes, but these possibilities relate: Autodesk and the future of the construction-architectural industry:
Please note that AD is almost required standard software in the US (monopoly).

Autodesk moves its apps completely to the Cloud.
All use of those apps becomes Cloud only.
All of your project's design files are only accessible via Cloud.
If your company does not pay the rent, its files cannot be accessed.
But the plans can be printed (2D drawings only): used to be called blueprints.
Autodesk requirement: Cover Sheet (Title Sheet) of any single project stamped with the AD Logo along with the Architect's, Structural Engineers and other SubContractor's to the Architect.

Note: AD apps include BIM (Building Information Models - Revit), AutoCAD (ACAD), Structural Design, HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning), Landscaping, Surveying and many other etc.

Note: Large building projects involve many companies, each with multiple design 'seats'. Easily hundreds, if not thousands, of subscriptions per project.

Essentially, this result (all too possible in the near future) would mean a project could not proceed without AD's approval.

This is the 'fundamental' change occuring now. Software companies become bloated as they mature. Innovation happens by aquiring other corporations, not by internal creativity. Creativity is surmounted by greed. Which becomes more practical on grand scales not imagined in earlier evolutionary years.

dsol
06-28-2013, 02:14 AM
Good article, thanks for sharing. Another way of looking at it is: There's never been a better time for a company (or small group of individuals) to come into the market with new ideas. Stagnant markets are ripe for being conquered by innovative risk-takers.

Ernest
06-28-2013, 04:40 AM
Pixologic would be an example of the remaining 15%
Pixologic is using one method for "participating in healthy market growth" by innovating their technology to make it ever more accessible to "analog" artists.

However, there is another player that is pushing heavily for market growth in a totally different way: Daz. They are not pushing technology. They will incorporate tech as it becomes available in open source projects and the like, but I haven't seen anything come from their own R&D. They are pushing the creation of canned art "pieces" that can be assembled by people who are not artists of any kind, the largest market of all.

safetyman
06-28-2013, 05:14 AM
Even though I don't like it, I can see more companies going to the cloud, since that is the best way ATM to minimize costs while maximizing profits. Companies like AD and Adobe think they can do this because they believe they don't have any competition, but maybe this will spark some innovation from "the little guys". It becomes a selling point: "Look! We don't require you to be connected to the (dark) cloud!"...

VonBon
06-28-2013, 09:15 AM
Where does Autodesk fall on that scale in your mind?

In my Mind they are the Market leader when it comes to this industry.
They have a tight grip on the game, movie and architectural markets,
so i would definitely put Autodesk in the 85%.

I don't use Maya or XSI, but i would like to know what their views on how
things have changed since being acquired by Autodesk.

3dWannabe
06-28-2013, 11:07 AM
Anyone notice that AD's forums got 'condensed'?

No more separate MotionBuilder 2012, 2013, etc.

Same for 3ds and others.

All the 'permanent links' (that was their word for them - a special link that would not die), are dead.

I'll skip giving my opinion of AD, but ... it's not very positive.