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View Full Version : With all the FX/ Game studios going down in Flames, what does it mean to NT?



robertoortiz
04-04-2013, 09:52 AM
Recently we have been getting a tidal wave of bad news.

That made me wonder.
With so many unemployed artists, how will thiws affext the makers of the software we use?

What about companies like Autodesk that are the lifeblood of game/Studios?

What does all this mean to smaller companies like Newtek/Pixologic?


Looking forward to your comments and opinions.

-R

MSherak
04-04-2013, 09:58 AM
Watch the comeback of the small studios again.. Most of the software will still be there. Though it will eventually come down to bang for the buck.

I don't see XSI or Maya getting lots of features in the the future and maybe not even lasting more than a couple more years unless Autodesk lets them go. Which will most likely not happen since that is the reason they bought them in the first place is to kill the competition. I know they would rather just everyone use MAX. Evident in the help pulldown in the latest XSI.

Blender, LW, Modo, MAX, Zbrush, Adobe line, 3D coat, Mudbox will be fine.

Cinema4D will drop in price but will be hard for the shareholders to swallow. Silly that it's up there with XSI, MAX and Maya in price, and starting to get releases just as frequent. Upgrade money!

People in the film industry will find out that they have to pay the VFX if they want them. Film will become boring for a couple years since they don't know how to write story's anymore. Even just silly fun ones. Practical FX will make a HUGE comeback cause it's tangible. You will see more indie films in the years to come that are great.

Games will look and feel like playing a movie. Physical media will slowly die off or trickle to a drip.

We will be more digitally connected and more physically disconnected than we are now.

Surrealist.
04-06-2013, 04:59 PM
The reason Autodesk bought up software was the same reason any large company buys up smaller companies. It is all about market share. If something can be bought and it looks good on paper to add it to the portfolio, and then idea can be sold to shareholders as something that will show a return, it is acted on.

There is absolutely no base in reality, nor any good sense/gain financially in buying up the competition to put it out of business in this scenario. This means that the money invested in the software becomes a huge loss. It is already a large risk, and more costly to do. But the pay off over the long run is the thinking. The losses would be too great to justify the gain.

After that, it is just pure logic of numbers. Maya has always had larger numbers than XSI. That was true before they bought XSI and is true now. They may have a lot of clout, but they can not force a worldwide user base to adopt one software over another. The use of Maya is entrenched. And the development numbers it terms of investment reflect it.

The use of software for high effects is not going to change. The demands that A list directors put on SFX teams will continue to increase as they innovate. It will continue to be a challenge for software companies to add more features to satisfy this constant demand for more.

These "new times" won't change any of these realities and Blender, LightWave and all of the rest will continue to move ahead in the way that they have. They will continue to take up the slack though. There will be people who drop out of the high end market because they don't really need it. And that will be good for LightWave. But only to the degree that LightWave develops. It won't be handed to them just because there is a crisis and people who need to produce high end effects like Houdini won't stop using Houdini just because there is a crisis. On the contrary. In times of strife there will be more demand for the fantasy escape in entertainment and that demand will continue to rise. And that will mean that everyone in the software business even more so will have to produce more and more features with better and better results. And people in the effects business will have to continue to spend on the best tools they can find and hire the best in house development talent that can get.

There will not be a mass exodus to lower cost software or features just based on fiances alone. There are too many other factors at play.

The best course of action for any business at this time is to step up production and produce the best features they can; effects houses to continue to concentrate on the best effects for the lowest cost. None of these things are going to change.

The crisis, has its origins, but it is not in creative choices. That will remain the same. As it as been - a continua rise in demand.

jburford
04-09-2013, 04:09 PM
Maya isn"t going anywhere! Totally separate markets from 3DS Max and focus from Autodesk.

shrox
04-09-2013, 04:19 PM
It's hobby time!

Da doo doo doot, da doo doo doot, da doot!

It's hobby time!

Celshader
04-09-2013, 04:38 PM
Recently we have been getting a tidal wave of bad news.

That made me wonder.
With so many unemployed artists, how will thiws affext the makers of the software we use?

What about companies like Autodesk that are the lifeblood of game/Studios?

What does all this mean to smaller companies like Newtek/Pixologic?


Looking forward to your comments and opinions.

-R

We'll find out what happened in ten years. ;)


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PlgN0ta6E8

Titus
04-10-2013, 12:34 AM
Recently we have been getting a tidal wave of bad news.

That made me wonder.
With so many unemployed artists, how will thiws affext the makers of the software we use?

What about companies like Autodesk that are the lifeblood of game/Studios?

What does all this mean to smaller companies like Newtek/Pixologic?


Looking forward to your comments and opinions.

-R

At least on my little side of the planet I can't see owners of medium-big studios being humble about the situation. They are still bragging how their studios spend thousands of dollars in Autodesk products. Maybe it's an entrepreneur thing and they can't accept they're doing anything wrong. Denial at its best.

JBT27
04-10-2013, 06:31 AM
I've been wondering if the days of the big fx houses are over, at least for now. If you look at so many recent episodes, like the producer who made the comment about putting at least one house out of business per show, and then the Oscar night insult to R&H, there is a well developed 'them and us' thing going on. The industry might have to collapse to prompt a slow but eventual comeback. And let's face it, the original 'Star Wars' to now is only 36 years; years which have been about leaps and bounds in technology and method, but a time when shows have got bigger and more complex and been chasing the innovations, without necessarily enough budget to cover it profitably.

There's no reason why movies may not settle into a lower tier for awhile, have less innovation - if the movies are still earning, I doubt the studios are going to care that much. Have that happen long enough, and sooner or later, you'll get the 'Star Wars' phenomenon again - breath of fresh air, something new, and all that.

It may also be a time for the smaller houses, and indeed the very small crews - not so much on the innovation, but good solid jobs, cost effective, and maybe plenty of work for the generalist. Software development is not going to stop, neither is creativity and innovation at all levels. Ten years down the line, probably less, it may be that smaller houses are handling what the bigger houses are doing now. It will likely require less people too, overall. The only thing that will change that is if there are so many productions all wanting fx, that the most successful ones will expand, like ILM back in the day. If that is sustainable. By definition, if fx work requires fewer people and resources, it could stabilise into a more profitable and workable business model than now.

Smaller teams may not be a bad thing either - what happens now, realistically, is too expensive to sustain.

Ultimately it will be the technology that will govern how the industry works, not unions or trade associations.

Julian.

Nicolas Jordan
04-10-2013, 07:02 AM
Since VFX and Gaming markets are entertainment related they seem to naturally be in the spotlight a bit more than other areas of 3D like 3D for print and architectural visualization. If Lightwave is to do well and have a stable user base it has to ensure it caters to all kinds of 3D users and not exclusively to VFX and Broadcast even though many new features tend to benefit users that do all kinds of work.