Ouch for Autodesk employees (and AD itself)

[Red_Oddity]

http://www.cgenie.com/articles/95-autodesk-wheres-the-money-going.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Autodesk-to-cut-750-jobs-sees-apf-14070528.html

Guess those unworthy updates and unhelpfull subscriptions are finally biting them in the rear.

[JohnMarchant]

Well i feel for the average employee in this current climate but as to Autodesk, tuff on them. So i wonder when the big sell off will be then ??

[Dirk]

What I don't get is how they could buy XSI then. They should have known their situation isn't that healthy, even before the financial crisis.

[StereoMike]

From the article:
"What's concerning about these figures is that this isn't the overall balance sheet figures, these are core sales. This isn't because they've be spending the money on buying Softimages, Moldflows or Robots, this is actual sales - the life blood of any company that is drying up."

They say it might be connected to a the expensive subscription model and ppl without work not upgrading anylonger.
A.) A less expensive competitor could grab some folks (lw X please hint hint)
B.) Might be time to think about the change in pricing policy NT announced (I don't say they should let it be like it is, just think about what ppl can pay in a depression, don't be a bloodsucker like AD).

mike

[cresshead]

i have to say there's several areas that this article lacks real facts or details...saying the ceo 'jumped ship' is abit of a laugh seeing as she left in 2006 and not anytime recently as you'd think from reading this muck.

the chart doesn't really tell you much as the baseline is over 'how long'....all of 2008...last 4 months...the entire length of autodesk being around....

and how does it compare to say apple, adobe...just looking at one chart means nothingn in these economic times...

re new seats...well there's a finite amount of 'new users' out there and subscriptions went up 27% last year...i bought 2 years worth to skip the 27% price rise...looking at what's just appeared on subscription for max 2009 in that softimage c.a.t is now a free download has galvanised my belief that the subscription model is well worth the cost seeing as we just got a $995 plugin...not to mention what's in store for the next version due out around april/may 2009 [max2010]

there ARE issues no doubt...but then there are issues with ALL larger corporations suich as apple, adobe etc..autodesk are not the only company feeling the pinch thesedays if you ever tune in to the news...

a bit of balance into the subject would go along way.

[dballesg]

... Newtek should hire some of them and work on a complete new core with new interface and modern tools... actually I see only Luxology having a new/modern core... many apps like 3Dmax, maya and Xsi are using old Ideas...

I think MacroTable (Autodesk) ;) Would fire the secretaries and coffee boys, I really doubt they would fire any valuable engineer that NT can abduct! :(

[cresshead]

I think MacroTable (Autodesk) ;) Would fire the secretaries and coffee boys, I really doubt they would fire any valuable engineer that NT can abduct! :(


actually some of the core engineers that created maya when they were at alias and stayed onboard when autodesk bought alias have been let go in the layoffs this week...so newtek should go head hunting!

[beverins]

Not to make fun of Newtek or anything - a job's a job - but I can imagine these core engineers at first wondering what they did to deserve this. LOL

Though I think once they worked at newtek they'd love it :-)

[Matt]

This is why it's good that NewTek have a hardware arm to their business. Although I hope sales are steady across the board, LightWave and all of the other products.

[beverins]

In fact, I imagine if Newtek were to somehow manage to score a former Alias / Autodesk engineer and then show them the insides of Lightwave... after the initial "heh, you guys are STILL around? Let's look at your code..." there would be the "damn, this is sweet"... followed soon by "I TOLD them to implement this in Maya, but did they listen?" :D

I hope and pray that as Newtek weathers this perfect storm, that they can also stick a boot into Autodesk's rear in the process. When the going gets tough, small and nimble usually nibbles away at the carcass of the lumbering behemoth as it falls from lack of sustenance.

[Matt]

when the going gets tough, small and nimble usually nibbles away at the carcass of the lumbering behemoth as it falls from lack of sustenance.

lol!

[cresshead]

here's a question...what 3d software HAS fallen in the last 10 years and is no longer developed?

[Matt]

here's a question...what 3d software HAS fallen in the last 10 years and is no longer developed?

Good question, I can't think of any!

[Sekhar]

I thought the article pretty clearly blamed AD's outrageous upgrade policy. I posted a note about my experience (MatchMover) and put a small plug for LW. Why don't you guys post too? It's time everyone knew about NT/LW.

[Kuzey]

here's a question...what 3d software HAS fallen in the last 10 years and is no longer developed?


I would say anything daz has bought has died or will :)

Kuzey

[meatycheesyboy]

here's a question...what 3d software HAS fallen in the last 10 years and is no longer developed?

Although never really a major player in terms of marketshare, Mirai is one that has fallen in the past decade. And from what I understand, it had some truly innovative modeling and animation tools for it's time.

[cresshead]

so..1 possible app then.
of course some were replaced>
power animatior, softimage 3, 3dstudio dos, fractal design raydream.

metacreations canoma died off i belive.

blender died for a while..then was resurected and bought into open source
i belive that when blender was a commercial app it was sold around the $2000 price mark.



not exactly a flood of apps that fell on their swords then!

and yeah some have gone on to be nearly lost by only somewhat updated each year
hexagon, poser, carrara and bryce.

i still have a warm spot for bryce as it got me into 3d in the first place.

[Andyjaggy]

I thought Amapi, the first 3D program I used was dead, but after a quick google search, it turns out it is still around, and costing about 750.00 for a copy!!! That's almost the price of Lightwave.

[Kuzey]

Yeah, I loved Bryce. Wish it made it's way to newtek instead, would have been so much better if it was part of LW :)

Kuzey

[dballesg]

here's a question...what 3d software HAS fallen in the last 10 years and is no longer developed?

Imagine 3D from Impulse Inc?

But looking on google I found this: Imagine3d.org (http://www.imagine3d.org/)



David

[Magnus81]

Yeah, I loved Bryce.:agree:
That's funny. I started with Bryce 4 many many moons ago. My brother and I made a fifteen minute animated movie with Bryce and Poser. Looking back at now, it's more like animated junk. But I owe a lot to Bryce for getting me started in 3D.
What about Strata Studio? Didn't that bite the dust.

[Weepul]

I started out with Infini-D...that and Ray Dream sort of got merged into Carrara, which I'd say was pretty much the death of both (and birth of something new altogether).

[Magnus81]

I had forgotten about Ray Dream and Inifi-D. Whatever happened to Metacreations? They started alot of 3d software that ended up being bought and turned into other software titles.

[Kuzey]

:agree:
That's funny. I started with Bryce 4 many many moons ago. My brother and I made a fifteen minute animated movie with Bryce and Poser. Looking back at now, it's more like animated junk. But I owe a lot to Bryce for getting me started in 3D.


If you still have the content CDs for Bryce 4 or 5, you can view my Melbourne fly-by animation. They gave me a free copy of infin-d for that, sweet program.

Kuzey

[BigHache]

I started with Strata Studio Pro in '95, bought a license of Bryce 3 (It Moves!) and even used a bit of Adobe Dimensions back in the day. For VERY simple models I believe I was able to export DXF from Dimensions and used Bryce as a render engine. I think I still have my Dimensions floppy disks around somewhere along with Illustrator 6 on it's 15 floppies...

I think Metacreations kinda went aways like Fractal Design, and even Creature House, who held onto the program Expression until Microsoft bought it and killed it for the Mac.

[Dexter2999]

Autodesk isn't just 3D software. In the current economic situation I am sure sales are off in the even more expensive products they offer like
AutoCAD (building is down and Archviz...so these seats will be off too)
Flame and Inferno Systems (do you need to upgrade NOW?)
Even the Combustion system is fighting for a spot in a highly congested Compositing market.

[lwanmtr]

AD also has business s/w and get this...software for emergency response...LOL Me thinks they be spreading themselves awful thin....most companies will stick to a target market, rather than trying to encompass all of reality. I, for one, will shed no tears if we see the end of Autodesk.

[virtualcomposer]

That's what AD gets for selling out. Greed will get a company no where. There's a fine balance of profit and customer. I hope the company goes down the tubes or forces them to become a small company depended mainly on customers so their heads don't swell up like a balloon.

[Sarford]

I think Metacreations kinda went aways like Fractal Design, and even Creature House, who held onto the program Expression until Microsoft bought it and killed it for the Mac.

Wasn't Bryce originaly developed by Kai from Kai's power tools? I think I remember some thing like that...

As for old 3D software, I used my very first on the Atari ST but forgot the name of that one. On my Amiga I used Caligari (now owned by Microsoft) and Real 3D, who is also still around (link (http://www.realsoft.fi/))

[AbnRanger]

Everybody seems to take a hit in this economy. I don't see why we would expect AD to be immune. They probably took the biggest hit in their their hardware systems sales (Flame, Flint, Inferno, Smoke, etc). Fusion and Nuke have really taken a bite out of them with their recent performance gains.

Fusion 6 will use GPU accleration for it's renders (not just viewport performance)! I just don't see how AD can justify the collosal price gap with such little cost to benefit ratio. In all fairness,though, AD will likely see a spike in the first quarter since 3ds Max and Autocad products receive new versions in March.

The inclusion of C.A.T. for Max users is pretty big:
http://area.autodesk.com/index.php/blogs_ken/blog_detail/announcement_free_cat_for_subscription_customers/
http://www.softimage.com/products/cat/default.aspx

not to mention Lumonix simultaneously made it's own C.A. system, Puppet Shop, available for free as well:
http://www.lumonix.net/puppetshop.html
Both systems are quite an improvement over Character Studio. CAT is written in C++, which makes it much faster and includes it's own Motion Mixer and Muscle System. It's procedural motion presets (such as a human walk cycle, four-legged animal, gorilla walk cycle, etc) will be really huge.

http://area.autodesk.com/index.php/blogs_ken/blog_detail/au_tech_demo_viewports/
http://area.autodesk.com/index.php/blogs_ken/blog_detail/2009_predictions/
http://area.autodesk.com/index.php/blogs_ken/blog_detail/research_update/

More reason than ever for LW developers to come out swinging in v10 with some serious CA improvements and either FPrime integrated or a vastly overhauled VIPER. XSI has a nifty render region tool. Maya, a built-in IPR, and Max viewport technology is getting very close to the look of final render output.

Using DirectX, this Material/Shader nodes plugin for Max really does some amazing stuff right in the viewport:
http://www.bencloward.com/ShaderFX/ShaderFX_subsurfaceScatteringDemo.wmv
http://www.bencloward.com/ShaderFX/ShaderFX_20fur1.wmv
http://www.bencloward.com/ShaderFX/ShaderFX_PerlinNoiseNodeDemo.wmv
http://www.bencloward.com/ShaderFX/ShaderFX_projectedTextureDemo.wmv

[Kuzey]

Wasn't Bryce originaly developed by Kai from Kai's power tools? I think I remember some thing like that...

As for old 3D software, I used my very first on the Atari ST but forgot the name of that one. On my Amiga I used Caligari (now owned by Microsoft) and Real 3D, who is also still around (link (http://www.realsoft.fi/))

Bryce was created by Eric Wenger, the interface was developed by Kai at metacreations...I think.

Kuzey

[zapper1998]

:newtek::thumbsup:


Hey Newtek

Get out The check book ......

You Might be able to buy some cheap Software Soon .....


:newtek::thumbsup:


Michael

[zapper1998]

Wasn't Bryce originaly developed by Kai from Kai's power tools? I think I remember some thing like that...

As for old 3D software, I used my very first on the Atari ST but forgot the name of that one. On my Amiga I used Caligari (now owned by Microsoft) and Real 3D, who is also still around (link (http://www.realsoft.fi/))

I still have bryce and tinker with it all the time...

[lwanmtr]

MetaCreations and Fractal Designs held Poser..which then went to Curious Labs, then E-Frontier and is now owned by Smith-Micro....LOL

Most 3D software sticks around a long time...even if AD goes bust, Maya, Max and XSI will probably continue as I'm sure someone will want to benefit from the Foreclosure Auctions and buy up the rights to a 3d package...

One of the reports I've read talks abut innovation..from what I've been seeing is that AD is good at acqusition..but have they really innovated much? Max-2009 is still pretty much the same. Maya has had some improvements..innovations? No. (Muscles are great, but beyond that it's the same app as 8.5). We'll have to see what they do with XSI (besides rebranding it and raising the price). There was speculation of merging Max and Maya into one program..did they do that? No. Max and Maya still cant communicate with each other very well.

[cresshead]

One of the reports I've read talks abut innovation..from what I've been seeing is that AD is good at acqusition..but have they really innovated much? Max-2009 is still pretty much the same. Maya has had some improvements..innovations? No. (Muscles are great, but beyond that it's the same app as 8.5). We'll have to see what they do with XSI (besides rebranding it and raising the price). There was speculation of merging Max and Maya into one program..did they do that? No. Max and Maya still cant communicate with each other very well.

you could say the same for lightwave, modo, cinema4d and houdini...what's NEW in any of these?:)

maya got muscles and ncloth particles...pretty amazing update when you look at the demo vids.:thumbsup:

xsi got i.c.e a clone of houdini more or less

max got c.a.t. okay we had it 'given' but it's VERY nice to have !:beerchug:

the only company i see as truly inventive of late is pixologic with zbrush.

most things have been done by now in the top apps so it'll tough to add new directions/innovations.

[lwanmtr]

True...there has been little 'true' innovation across the board.

ncloth, ice and cat werent really autodesk innovations..they were acquisitions, if I'm not mistaken.

Now, if AD were to actually put their engineers to work and make all the apps into one..or at least get them to talk to each other...hehe

NewTek, of course, needs to really get some real innovations going too..ikb was a great idea, but it doesnt quite work right. 9.6 at least has brought LW back into the game, at least kept it from being disqualified..hehe.

I think if 10 has a teddy bear plugin, it will blow them all away...what is a teddy bear plugin? I dont know (im not a programmer)..but just putting that in the features list will make people go 'what the?' hehe.

[jaf]

While Truespace didn't exactly fail, I imagine they were pretty close. Now it remains to be seen what MS will do with it.

And innovation.... I think Andrew and his 3D-Coat is doing quite well. He's now promised a Linux version and supports 3DConnexion devices and Nividia CUDA.

[DiscreetFX]

Please get back on topic with the AD bashing.

LOL

:D

Big bummer when anyone loses their job though.

[lwanmtr]

yup..feel bad for the people who work there..well worked there.

AD bashing is fun and easy...lol

[Stooch]

Now, if AD were to actually put their engineers to work and make all the apps into one..or at least get them to talk to each other...hehe

SCREEEEECCCHHHHHH (tire sound)

didnt you just spend like several pages arguing against merging layout and modeler... when they actually SHOULD be merged together and on the same breath bitching at autodesk for not merging COMPLETELY separate applications?

[lwanmtr]

Sheesh...pay attention to the tone :screwy:

[zapper1998]

SCREEEEECCCHHHHHH (tire sound)

didnt you just spend like several pages arguing against merging layout and modeler... when they actually SHOULD be merged together and on the same breath bitching at autodesk for not merging COMPLETELY separate applications?

VVVVRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMM (Accelerator got stuck)


:)

[Stooch]

Sheesh...pay attention to the tone :screwy:

????

what tone? you are on forums remember? text... (newtek needs a retard emoticon)

[lwanmtr]

Gawd...the tone of my post...

[JBT27]

What I don't get is how they could buy XSI then. They should have known their situation isn't that healthy, even before the financial crisis.

Same mentality that caused the current economic disaster - the financial institutions who lit the fuse are the very idiots who couldn't see past their own mounting bad business, and yet they are the very people, actually the only people, who could have taken action to avoid it.

Likewise with AD - I bet there were some on the board, surely at least one, who saw this coming but were powerless to stop all the expensive acquisitions; in wanting to own all those products, I wonder if anyone ever stopped to think if they even should be, when they already had a solid product and userbase?

Tough for employees and worrying for the userbase, but it still highlights that for this market and this type of product, NT have the business model that does work, whereas AD is now finding it doesn't.

Operating systems as a worldwide high-volume product are one thing, as M$ knows, but creative and technical software for what is arguably a highly niche market is more akin to a regional specialist store chain, lucrative, but not high-powered international.

Julian.

[jaxtone]

To bad for all the common guys at AD but for the board and top guys I just wish they will fall hard in the future, (but I guess not since each one of them probably got a double pair of financial parachute´s to lean on.) According to my earlier thread about price and policy in the 3D-world and with AD in the focus I must say that in a strange way this was expected!

Disband the cartel!

[lwanmtr]

Over extension is usually bad idea for any market...Most of the time, when large corporations are in danger, they will try to stem that demise by trying to break into markets that they werent in before...in this case, AD is trying to leverage multiple apps of the same genre..but realistically in order to truly succeed they would have to have enough staff to be able to fully develop all that s/w..and with them laying off people left and right, it looks like they dont.

Newtek has remained small, but the small size and the fact they arent trying to use their capital on acquisition means they should hopefully be able to weather a little better..of course, NT went through some hard times before back in early VT days.

[DiedonD]

Oh, a 'Sorry for the creative staff, but down with Monopolistic Despots!' here too Im afraid

[cresshead]

with the economic situation i'd not be surprised if something like xsi, maya or 3dsmax got sidelined for a few years and wasn't developed...just kept current [runs on windows 7 for example]

they own the market anyhow so should let the competition catch up for a few years maybe.

[lwanmtr]

Lol

[mattclary]

Supply: infinite - the bits are easily copyable and distributable
Demand: low - 3D apps are not used by 99% of computer users
Price: stratospheric - Autodesk charges way to much for their crap

Sounds like someone needs to drop their prices a bit.

[cresshead]

Supply: infinite - the bits are easily copyable and distributable
Demand: low - 3D apps are not used by 99% of computer users
Price: stratospheric - Autodesk charges way to much for their crap

Sounds like someone needs to drop their prices a bit.

prices and wot not are 'relative' really and autodesk put up their price 27% last year...first increase EVER on 3dsmax since 1996 when it launched as max 1.0:hey:

when you compare prices of say lightwave, maya complete, 3dsmax and cinema they look to be about right when you see them next to one another for capabilities and tools...if max price came down so would lightwave etc.

[JeffrySG]

Bryce was created by Eric Wenger, the interface was developed by Kai at metacreations...I think.

Kuzey

Yeah, it (Metacreations) was originally HSC Software when it came out... those were the days!

[cresshead]

weird how metacreations disapeared...they had a good app lineup at one point with bryce, canoma, raydream, poser, painter, expression etc

see their old line up here>

http://web.archive.org/web/20010208101814/www.metacreations.com/products/index.html

[COBRASoft]

Alladin 4D from NovaDesign is gone from the market. Although, it has hardly been on the market. ImageFX on the other hand was a great product from NovaDesign, the should make it for Windows, it had a lot of nice tools.

[lwanmtr]

Back in the day, I had heard that Nova was considering Mac...of course, they didnt have the resources to compete with Adobe..but yeah ImageFX has some nice features..so that took Adobe a few years after to get into Ps. I tried Alladin4D...once...hehe.

[DiedonD]

prices and wot not are 'relative' really and autodesk put up their price 27% last year...first increase EVER on 3dsmax since 1996 when it launched as max 1.0:hey:

when you compare prices of say lightwave, maya complete, 3dsmax and cinema they look to be about right when you see them next to one another for capabilities and tools...if max price came down so would lightwave etc.

Defending your fellow Max again are we!

Well, cant argue with your facts, but... Max is horseshit and you know it :D

Admit it, come on... come on.... Youre nearly there... See the light? It means youre getting closer... Come one, come on! And? ....

[cresshead]

have a look at cat which is free for max2009 now...then pick your jaw up from the floor..!:D

http://www.graeck.de/showroom/CAT_Tutorial_CATMotion_Intro.wmv

http://www.graeck.de/showroom/CAT_Tutorial_CATMotion_Layers.wmv

use VLC player if you dont have techsmith codec installed

[lwanmtr]

Looks like an updated version of the character tools that were in max before...Of course, the lack of audio on those vids is kind of annoying.

Dont get me wrong it looks cool, and it'd be great to have in LW...but I'd like to see it in use with real characters before I pass judgement..biped had some neat things..but adapting it to a figure was a pain in the butt.

[cresshead]

use the free VLC player to watch and GET audio of you do not have the techsmith codec installed on your system


here's a couple of cat driven characters>>

http://www.snowball.co.il/video/porcupine.wmv
http://www.snowball.co.il/video/rooster.wmv

[DiedonD]

Well, I dont like cats!

So Max sucks anyway :neener:

Catmotion! Whats wrong with Autodesk guys! Why cant they name a single thing right! First is Maximilian and the Catmotion!

All their products suck at key areas such as their own names!

Now, if it was dogmotion or a pigmotion, that would be more amusing to laugh at!

[cresshead]

Well, I dont like cats!

So Max sucks anyway :neener:

LOL!:D

well each to your own...i hate all the 3d apps just that some i hate less than others..lightwave and max are the 2 least hated by me:)

just don't mention that instant headache app *si:devil:

anyhow..got to get back to learning maya!

[Magnus81]

It seems to me that AD made the same mistake a lot of giant companies make, and that is over expansion too quickly. They acquired more assets too fast and stretched themselves thin.

[cresshead]

It seems to me that AD made the same mistake a lot of giant companies make, and that is over expansion too quickly. They acquired more assets too fast and stretched themselves thin.

you mean like the banks and car companies..:D you'll find this is not unususal for near all companies out there and has little to do with recent aquisitions other than relativley poor timing..being a public companiy it has to declare it's trading/shares other private companies are also hurting i belive though you wont ness know as they do not have to disclose their business.

[Magnus81]

Agreed! They should have spent their money wisely, like buying up all the HD DVD technology patents.

[Magnus81]

Uhhh.... I hope you realize that the post above was very much a joke!

[adamredwoods]

Has Blender canned any employees yet?

[lwanmtr]

Plato cited the median as being the true driving force of a nation. Of course he was referring to a nation's population, not businesses..but I think it holds there too. We can currently see that the big behemoth corporations hemorraging and suffering horribly (and with luck dying off), while the ones that are in the mid range of the business world are managing to keep to business as usual.

We'll see what companies are really made of over the next few years..most economists are saying that we're not even into the 'economic crisis' full swing yet...but it is coming.

[AbnRanger]

To be honest....much of this "Crisis" is media driven. The "Placebo Effect" is their best tool. The more they keep talking up the failing economy the more withdrawn the common joe is going to withhold spending.

The Economy was red hot before 1-2yrs of fuel price gouging brought it down. Now that fuel prices are back to a decent level, things will gradually warm up again...unless the media keeps up the fear-mongering just to maintain interest in their broadcast (people want to know just how bad it is today).
They are like the "Rubber-Necks" who slow traffic to a crawl, just so they can see someone changing a flat on the shoulder of the road. :twak:

[AbnRanger]

CAT goes way beyond Character Studio in many ways, but that doesn't mean CS is now useless or obsolete. CS remains plenty powerful, and has a nice Crowd Behavior system to boot.
This is why I'm not yet seeing the benefit CA in Maya has over Max. Maybe someone can illuminate the differences.
By the time you finish setting up your rig with all of it's custom control objects in Maya, you're already rigged, skinned and animating with C.A.T. (same for CS, mostly) in Max.

[cresshead]

To be honest....much of this "Crisis" is media driven. The "Placebo Effect" is their best tool. The more they keep talking up the failing economy the more withdrawn the common joe is going to withhold spending.

The Economy was red hot before 1-2yrs of fuel price gouging brought it down. Now that fuel prices are back to a decent level, things will gradually warm up again...unless the media keeps up the fear-mongering just to maintain interest in their broadcast (people want to know just how bad it is today).
They are like the "Rubber-Necks" who slow traffic to a crawl, just so they can see someone changing a flat on the shoulder of the road. :twak:

i'd say the british media are always looking for a sensational story be it the bbc or the gutter press daily rag..they thrive on bad news as its their way to drive ratings, though i have to say there's plenty of 'bad news' over here in regards companies cutting back or going under altogether..i'm one of those 'stats' too now...:thumbsdow and to think we're just entering it as of now..it's not started properly yet!:cry:8/

[lwanmtr]

To be honest....much of this "Crisis" is media driven.

Really? I know people who have been laid off and are unable to find work. I think they would probably disagree with you there.

[lwanmtr]

Its all in your mind....

[lwanmtr]

The people that say that sorta thing are the ones who are either in school or havent had a friend say 'guess what..they shut down x dept..'. Either that or they are trying to deny that there is a problem in hopes that will make it go away....that would be great if it worked like that.

Of course, the media is going to jump on it..if for nothing else to convince their higher ups that they should continue to be employed in order to report on the crumbling situation.

[TeZzy]

Well, to a certain extent the media doesn't JUST tell us what is happening :D

*Runs away*

[AbnRanger]

Really? I know people who have been laid off and are unable to find work. I think they would probably disagree with you there.They were talking this up WELL before your buddies got laid off.
Markets are driven by...get this....SPECULATION!!!Speculation is a matter of people's imagination. They often make sweeping adjustments to some of the lamest of reasons. "Oil Prices took another spike today on concerns of labor negotiations in Zimbabwae earlier in the week." What?!
Zimbab-Freakin-Wae?!:devil:

Oil prices were more driven by speculators than actual demand? Even when demand was trending downward, greedy speculators kept prices going upward. Sure there are real numbers to consider, but again, I said MUCH...NOT ALL...BUT MUCH of the economic turmoil is a by-product of the media stoking peoples fears, which leads to joe sixpack watching the evening news deciding he's not buying that new lawnmower this year, like he had planned. Enough Joe's decide not to buy a mower, and John Deer has to start laying folks off.

No...the media NEVER has anything to do with the way people perceive the world. Can't happen....yeah, ok. If you say so.

[StereoMike]

The Economy was red hot before 1-2yrs of fuel price gouging brought it down. Now that fuel prices are back to a decent level, things will gradually warm up again...unless the media keeps up the fear-mongering just to maintain interest in their broadcast (people want to know just how bad it is today).
It's the exact opposite: The fuel price can be seen as an indicator for wealth/growth as well as prices for goods and energy. If people cannot afford them, prices go down.
The whole thing has nothing to do with media. In fact I believe it is far worse then anyone pointed it out in the media. In Germany you see the banks taking more and more of the money they have been offered to stabilize, and people wonder what 2009 will bring, when the banks eat up the rescue initiative.
I think the media could do a lot worse: Since this crisis is about trust (banking systems only works cause people have trust in the value of the currency), you could really bring panic to the people. But the reports are rather calm compared to the possible outcome...
mike

[DiedonD]

They were talking this up WELL before your buddies got laid off.
Markets are driven by...get this....SPECULATION!!!Speculation is a matter of people's imagination. They often make sweeping adjustments to some of the lamest of reasons. "Oil Prices took another spike today on concerns of labor negotiations in Zimbabwae earlier in the week." What?!
Zimbab-Freakin-Wae?!

That and I think the media should highlight more the good stuff and aswell as bad in order to balance!

Surely, not everyone is beeing sacked!

Someone is doing well! Why wont they do some of that too?

But they prefer to strike with fear so as youre glued with terror to the box instead!

And that comes because of competition! Othe News Channels will chose to strike fear for greater ratings, so it becomes 'Lets see who strikes beter!' race to the cost of the viewer!

[AbnRanger]

I thought so!...It always makes me laugh when someone says this crisis is media-driven. As if the media is REALLY responsible for this mess.
I said MUCH....what part of the word "MUCH" don't you understand? And yes, the media has far more viewers than those that are making decisions about loans.
Millions upon millions are being spoon fed daily how terrible the economy was BEFORE the numbers ever showed it! They were spewing how bad it was back when Bush was running against John Kerry. The economy was red hot, yet the opponents of the Bush administration...which includes a vast percentage of the media...kept making excuses "Well, Joe Six-Pack doesn't feel better off!" :D

I never said the state of the economy was a figment of anyone's imagination, or that there aren't any layoffs. I'm just stating that the media blew things out of proportion then and now...and that has heightened people's fears.
Ever heard of the economic term "Consumer Confidence?" What is that? We're talking about figments of people's imagination...their "PERCEPTION", aren't we?

I get a good laugh out of people who act as though the media has no role in shaping society's perceptions. Take any journalism class in college and then come back here making the same argument.

[DiedonD]

Of course there are some that are not feeling this and are actually doing better - but they are FAR fewer than those who are doing worse. But then again... there were a few on this forum who thought things were going fine for them - and then they were summarily sacked without warning.



The ones that arent doing fine and the ones that are fine have something in common! They both want to be fine!

Why wont the media join together with everyones goals and be more positive? Instead of bitching why the insect couldnt climb the building today - literarily (simple negative thing to shoot, but has rooms for interpretations)

Nah, cause someone somtimes mustve proved it to them that HELL receives more attention than HEAVEN. So shoot hell for better ratings!

[AbnRanger]

It's the exact opposite: The fuel price can be seen as an indicator for wealth/growth as well as prices for goods and energy. If people cannot afford them, prices go down.
The whole thing has nothing to do with media. In fact I believe it is far worse then anyone pointed it out in the media. In Germany you see the banks taking more and more of the money they have been offered to stabilize, and people wonder what 2009 will bring, when the banks eat up the rescue initiative.
I think the media could do a lot worse: Since this crisis is about trust (banking systems only works cause people have trust in the value of the currency), you could really bring panic to the people. But the reports are rather calm compared to the possible outcome...
mikeObama stated in his address that the economy was in part due to SOME people's greed (sure that refers to loan institutions....but oil investors were the behemoth he was likely referring to, for the Democrats...and rightfully so, raked the big Oil execs across the coals for the past 2 yrs) high oil prices are not necessarily a barometer of national wealth...for those of us old enough to remember when Jimmy Carter was President...we know High Oil Prices weren't derived from a thriving economy.

Speculators and investors of all brands and flavors saw a trend of increasing oil demand, and the gold rush was on! High Oil prices seeped into every part of the world's economy. Loan indescretions had a much smaller impact, comparitively.

[DiedonD]

Yes of course... and those of us who are NOT fine DON'T want to be fine?

You conclude that, from this!

The ones that are doin fine and the ones that are fine have something in common! They both want to be fine!

Dont you see that you belong to the 'not doing fine' group up there, and that you have something in common with the ones 'that are already fine' , and that is of course to be fine! Howcome you didnt saw that simple thing? And choose to see that Im excluding you from the two mutually exclusive groups?!

Is it too late for you old timer?

And mind the demeaning emoticons will ya? Were just chatting here, no need to be so insulting!

[AbnRanger]

And yet my business (archviz) started declining in late 2006 - LONG before there were dire problems in the market. It declined in 2007 and in 2008 it went down further - and after the 1st quarter of '08 it practically DIED. :eek: AGAIN... long before there were "super negative" media stories about "recession" or "depression."

Of course there are some that are not feeling this and are actually doing better - but they are FAR fewer than those who are doing worse. But then again... there were a few on this forum who thought things were going fine for them - and then they were summarily sacked without warning.

Sorry... I do NOT buy that this is a "media-driven" problem. Not one bit. But then again... that's MY opinion. :devil:
Just because I state that the media has SOME part in fueling consumer fears...doesn't mean you have grounds to hyper-exagerrate my comments.

Journalists know the message they put out carries weight. Just look at Sarah Palin's ratings before the media went after her and tried to characterize her in a derrogatory, demeaning manner. It was an all out assault on the woman's character...and it worked! They acknowledged as much.
Without that media blitz, it would have likely been a much more challenging Presidential race. That's why I think many Liberals in the media were so enraged with GWB...he didn't just beat Gore and Kerry...but he did it despite their massive campaign against him! :D

[lwanmtr]

Oil prices are not the only thing..nor are the stupidy of the bankers..there are alot of factors that have been building..new markets, outsourcing, technology..but whatever the cause, I dont think the media has had as much of an impact as some would have you think....yes, wallstreet, nasdaq and such run on speculation..but those arent the all in the economy...

One aspect is the large corporations...they get larger and more top heavy. They get more tax breaks than the little guys...trust me..as someone who falls into the small business category, I have to pay a larger % of my income to the great and wonderful IRS..

Again, there is no one thing you can point to...al you can is recognise that the problem exists, is a real problem...and not stick your head in the sand while saying 'the media is just blowing it all out of proportion'.

remember this.. 'Brother, can you spare a dime?'

[DiedonD]

Again, there is no one thing you can point to...al you can is recognise that the problem exists, is a real problem...and not stick your head in the sand while saying 'the media is just blowing it all out of proportion'.



Well if the problem really is out there on those large proportions as you see in TV that it is! Then why is the media adding so much more solt to the economic wounds by concentrating on the bads only?

[lwanmtr]

Because there isnt much else for them to report

[DiedonD]

Because there isnt much else for them to report

So! The WHOLE country has lost jobs then! And nobody isnt making even the least effort to work?

Everybody isnt doing well? 100%?

[lwanmtr]

Its a big country and its easier to report whats happening..rather than try and try and list all the folks who aint lost their jobs yet..that would take a long time...now there mught be a time when it'll be easier to say who still has work..hehe.

Fact is on the local level, the media does report on good things that happen. But when you're talking about AP wire and such, they're more interested in larger news.

[DiedonD]

Its a big country and its easier to report whats happening..rather than try and try and list all the folks who aint lost their jobs yet..that would take a long time...now there mught be a time when it'll be easier to say who still has work..hehe.

Fact is on the local level, the media does report on good things that happen. But when you're talking about AP wire and such, they're more interested in larger news.

Well, I dont think that those that are doing fine are so hard to find on the list! They cant be so less, cause youd be having 90% of News talking about the good things only then, ironically as always!

My point is, that the Media shouldnt try to prosper by seeking out the failings of the country, in order to boost their ratings, to the cost of the viewers!

I understand that the economy hits them aswell, and theyre desperate so go for the sure thing to glue viewers on TV, which is fear, but it may not be helping people pass the crisis at all!

You should know better. One of your wise man said 'Nothing to be afraid but fear itself' in that economic crisis then. And it prooved to work back then. Its a way forward.

Compare that to the race of who gest to spread fear most among News channels today and youll see how well would the medias attempts at helping be at that through fear!

And are they even trying to do so, or are they trying to save their own selves by spreading those fears to the cost of the viewers' unrest again!

[DiedonD]

Perhaps you should re-read what you wrote. You said NOTHING about "not doing fine." You lumped "doin fine and ARE fine" but said nothing about NOT doing fine. So of course I took it that way since THAT is how you wrote it. You may have MEANT to say "not doing fine" but you didn't WRITE it. Correct?



That would be correct indeed! Ive corrected it now. Guess mistunderstandings are bound to hapen regardless how well one tries to remove as much vacuum as possible!


You don't want me to use emoticons because you think they are derisive. And yet you say stuff like this. ..."making the least effort to work?" You think that these people are ALL lazy and aren't looking? Tell me....how can people get work if there are no jobs being offered? If you are trained for one type of work and that sector is shut down, where do you find work that you can do TO PROVIDE FOR YOUR FAMILY? Oh yes.... the guy who was making $75k a year will work for $15k a year at a burger joint? Yeah... that'll work.

Well I can see why the emoticon was put. It mustve made you confused an all, so its kinda just. But I hate receiving one when wasnt called for.

As for a response to your question. Again, its media! It strikes with fear to everyone! Even Big Boses, that dont have the guts to stick around in tough times after the 'carefully collected neutral raelity representation' from the media has been slapped to the Big Boss's face, shocking his freshly squezzed orange juice with ice, from his hand! Who choose rather to go to the beach then fight off the crisis, though they have chosen to be Big Bosses from start, decide to run now, and let other 'idiots' deal with the mess!

The media makes these impacts mate! Whats so good about scaring off Big Bosses away? Big Bosses that offer and maintain jobs! What a way forward is that?

But I dont think they care! As long as ratings are up...

Edit: And I dont think that youre lazy, its the media that is showing it as if though 100% of the country has failed. Not me! Or so Lwanmtr seems to think so, cause 'the ones that still have jobs are too short on the list' he believes it is!

[lwanmtr]

Uhm..sorry, but CEO's and business owners dont take their actions from the media..they may watch the media, but they will look at their balance sheets and see the direction their money is going. Right now, most businesses have money going out, but not coming in. This isnt because of the media..its because people dont have money to spend.

Even if the media concentrated on who 'didnt' lose work this week, it wont change the fact that more people are losing work every day...

Looking at the big picture of 'civilization will get through' is of absolutely no comfort to someone who may have lost their job, their house, their car and are fighting some transient for a choice refridgerator box to sleep in. Maybe a bit over the top there, but it's just to illustrate a point.

[DiedonD]

Even if the media concentrated on who 'didnt' lose work this week, it wont change the fact that more people are losing work every day...



I disagree

Let me tell you something about Big Bosses. Though it may seem as if though theyre just some kinda robot that just see the numbers, which show the past only, and some statistics alone, and carry out their strategies based on whats shown to be in recent pass alone, they are much more than that.

They care about the future aswell! And for that, they need the majority to have a glimpse, a hope, a futuristic project of how good it may be? So as then, they can arrange for 'withhold for a while' strategies, until that better time arrives!

That hope ang glimpse is beeing severly distrorted by the News teams panic at having their own jobs, by going the secure way at gluing people on TV's! And that is fear! Thats the problem!

[lwanmtr]

Yeah, I know they look at the future...each companie generally does its own projections for coming periods..but they get those projections from their balances..and when those show a steady decline, then they have to take actions from that...they dont get their projections from the media

[DiedonD]

Projections of future, as far as companies are concerned, are entirely based around 'How prepared is the public to buy the companies products!'

Thats all.

They wont be much prepared if its HELL outside, as presented by the media, now would they?

Unless of course the whole thing is a plot to exhaust products that are most used in crisis...

[AbnRanger]

Yeah... media misrepresentation.



So you don't like what the media is telling you? Read what I wrote above and tell me where they were "exaggerating." Media PERCEPTION huh? Did you ever stop to think that the PERCEPTION was ALSO the REALITY? A car is coming straight at you and someone tells you that it looks like it's going to hit you. That's his perception. And you look and it is also your perception as well. You move out of the way and the car runs right over the spot where you were standing. Looks like PERCEPTION WAS REALITY.

I think you just relish an argument, the same way the media likes to sensationalize their content. Have you ever heard of a thing called "Ratings?" Have you ever in your life come to like a song, and in no time flat grow sick of hearing it played so many times? No? What planet did you arrive from, then?
I mention that it was my opinion that the media helps make matters worse...and you just HAVE to come along and try to not only offer your 2 cents worth, but demean others in the process.

Your argument about the media warning of a car coming doesn't work at all. The reason it doesn't is that, one...it's their inherent job to boost ratings, not simply report news events. Look at the original OJ Simpson trial as an example. If they are just reporting news, then why the imbalance of coverage with other murder trials? No such thing as a media circus, huh? Sure, they were "Just reporting." Only problem is, for the sake of ratings, they were REPORTING far more than the average citizen needed to hear. No such thing as media hype, huh?

Secondly, the car they are "supposedly" warning about happens to have them riding shotgun. :D
Again, it's because of the media's intense desire to sensationalize the news (be it good or bad), that HELPS cause unnecessary panic in THE CONSUMER....did you get that?...THE CONSUMER (Joe Six-Pack).

When people fear, they stop spending. When they stop spending, what happens? Businesses stop selling products and services. It may be a matter of "which came first, the chicken or the egg?" scenario, but the bottom line is that most people, who are gainfully employed are skiddish about the news they are hearing...even though they aren't DIRECTLY affected.
Still, it puts an unnecessary sense of foreboding and conservationism in their mind, and they are less prone to spend as they normally would if they hadn't heard incessantly how rotten the economy is.
When millions of people react that way to news they are hearing, it affects the economy. It's a chain reaction...a knee jerk.

That can't happen according to you. The media's tendency to sensationalize it's content plays no part in stirring up economic fears. It just reports the news, right? No ratings involved, whatsoever...right?

Go ahead, build another straw man...take others words and exaggerate them just so you can stir up another argument, and attempt to make yourself feel superior in the process. All hail sir Megaladon, who ever endows us with his wisdom and intellectual mastery! :bowdown:

[beverins]

I knew it! Autodesk is really based in Wasilla, and it's all Palin's fault!

1) Autodesk buy all 3D software, sets up shop in Alaska
2) Alaska goes independent
3) ???
4) PROFIT!!!

Or something like that.

[JAW]

What I find funny about this tread is that AutoDesk just build a 212,000sqft build in my area, and has been being picketed by local companies and unions. Guess they had enough money to build a huge building, next to a vacant building. Now we have 2 huge building empty. and 2 blocks down the road Adobe just built a facility of there own, thats still vacant.

[lwanmtr]

LOL. that is kinda funny.

[olegm]

I guess Newtek can't hire any of AD engineers because of the quarantine they need to pass before working for a competitor. I think in CG industry it's about two or three years :(

[lwanmtr]

Yeah, something like that...of course, not sure what happens if AD actually goes under.

[Speedmonk42]

I think MacroTable (Autodesk) ;) Would fire the secretaries and coffee boys, I really doubt they would fire any valuable engineer that NT can abduct! :(

Well if they are going to abduct them, it really doesn't matter if they are fired or not.

Newteks coding gulag...

[Wickster]

AutoDesk might use these troubled times as an excuse to kill off one or two of its products as a way of saying that it's tough to develop three products that does the same thing.

[cresshead]

AutoDesk might use these troubled times as an excuse to kill off one or two of its products as a way of saying that it's tough to develop three products that does the same thing.

i don't think they's kill any product as such as all have userbases and would buy the latest..they may and have retired apps [edit, lightscape, paint, effect]

they have already more or less mothballed/retired combustion and now promote Toxic rather than combustion..same could go for xsi or maya or 3dsmax.

max just gained c.a.t....so autodesk could just add plugins each year from other people...thing is 3dsmax has THE largest userbase of any 3d app so i somewhat doubt 3dsMax will retire.

maya's dev team got cutback recently...but again it's huge in films and games...so doubt it'll go...dev could be cut but not the app as too many studio's [film and games] rely on it.

xsi wasn't huge anywhere [seats sold] but WAS THE big competitor techwise..now they own it they could mothball it and move people onto maya maybe...

motionbuilder is of it's own...they may wrap it's dev into maya or xsi and drop motionbuilder in future...

mudbox looked to be a zbrush killer but hasn't done the deed in any measure as yet...they might drop it if it dossn't make their threshold for seats sold in 2009.

so my 2 to drop would be mudbox and Xsi if ANY.

[Titus]

motionbuilder is of it's own...they may wrap it's dev into maya or xsi and drop motionbuilder in future...

I think the new animation layers in Maya are taken from motionbuilder, maybe they will strip it in the future.

[cresshead]

could be...animation layers are in 3dsmax too...no idea if they match up with motionbuilder..

having said all that about motion builder it did have a fantastic live demo at siggraph 2008 on the first day's webcasting...wish i had recorded it as that was the best demo i saw of 2008...was from a studio not 'an autodesk demo person' and really hilighted just how amazing motion builder was as they live recorded with a mocap suit and camera and made a previz in a round 10mins...brilliant stuff for sure.

[Red_Oddity]

I guess Newtek can't hire any of AD engineers because of the quarantine they need to pass before working for a competitor. I think in CG industry it's about two or three years :(

What, that is still 'legal' in the US?

It's like telling a bricklayer he will just have to become a baker for a couple of years, or become a math teacher, as he isn't allowed to work in his field of expertise anymore. Rubbish.

So basically your not only fired, your fired for the next 3 years to come.

[Dirk]

What, that is still 'legal' in the US?

It's like telling a bricklayer he will just have to become a baker for a couple of years, or become a math teacher, as he isn't allowed to work in his field of expertise anymore. Rubbish.

So basically your not only fired, your fired for the next 3 years to come.

:agree:
that does sound strange to me, too

[lwanmtr]

I think there was some legislature a while back reguarding the issue..cant recall what they came up with..but yeah it can hurt a programmer.

[Titus]

What, that is still 'legal' in the US?

It's like telling a bricklayer he will just have to become a baker for a couple of years, or become a math teacher, as he isn't allowed to work in his field of expertise anymore. Rubbish.

So basically your not only fired, your fired for the next 3 years to come.

Even if this is illegal, the big company always haa the opportunity to suit to the oblivion a small one for patent breach:

http://www.allbusiness.com/services/motion-pictures/4877548-1.html

[Red_Oddity]

Even if this is illegal, the big company always haa the opportunity to suit to the oblivion a small one for patent breach:

http://www.allbusiness.com/services/motion-pictures/4877548-1.html

That had more to do with the patented stochastic sampling the ex Pixar programmers lifted from Renderman and added to Entropy as far as i can remember. (Not quite the way you should do it, but then again, i think patents are the devils invention as they prohibit any form of evolution or progress in certainm fields.)

[Titus]

And something similar happened with NextLimit vs 3daliens. At the end nothing was proved but the damage was done.

[lwanmtr]

Dont quite understand how a mathematical algorithm can be patented..but ahh well.
The trick is to take that and actually improve it before trying to release it.

I'm sure that NewTek was watching Luxology very closely to make sure that none of the LW code ended up in Modo. As well as Bauhaus (Mirage).